A salvo of Iranian missiles, launched from coastal batteries or mobile platforms—especially if paired with drone swarms—could theoretically penetrate the carrier group’s defenses.
American forces in the Mideast are waiting for the arrival of the USS Nimitz, America’s oldest nuclear-powered supercarrier. In the run-up to the recent “Operation Midnight Hammer”—America’s airstrikes on three key Iranian nuclear enrichment facilities—it was speculated that the carrier’s air wing would be needed to escort the US Air Force’s B-2 Spirit long-range stealth bombers carrying GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators (MOPs) to their targets.
Ultimately, the air wing went unused for that purpose; there are other carriers on-site. However, the Navy is placing the Nimitz near the Persian Gulf in preparation for an Iranian counterattack against American troops in the region. In doing so, it is putting the ship within the extended range of Iranian anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBMs)—leaving open the possibility that the ship might be targeted in retaliation.
Iran’s Missiles Pose a Threat to the USS Nimitz
Should Tehran decide to retaliate fully—and should the Americans (and Israelis) fail to totally dominate the airspace over Iran—the Iranians could very well get a kill shot on the American carrier in the days to come. Indeed, during America’s recent unsuccessful mission to defeat the Houthi militant group in Yemen, its ASBM capability was so profound—and came so close to damaging US carriers—that Washington cut its losses rather than continue risking its vulnerable and expensive carriers.
Of course, the assets that the Trump administration brought to the strike on Iran was greater than those devoted to Yemen. During the strike, the US Navy deployed E/A-18G Growlers and F/A-18E/F Super Hornets to cover for the B-2 Spirits. And in the aftermath, rather than risk a newer carrier with possible retaliation from Iran’s complex ASBM arsenal, the Americans are choosing to risk an older one—the venerable Nimitz—that is set to be decommissioned next year in any case.
To be clear, sinking the Nimitz would be no mean feat. In order to sink the warship, Iran would need to overcome the carrier’s layered defenses, including the Aegis Combat System on escort ships, E-2 Hawkeye early warning aircraft, Super Hornets for air defense, and close-in weapon systems (CIWS) like the Phalanx. Nevertheless, the Houthis served as an excellent missile testing agency for the Iranians. And the Iranians have far greater numbers and more complex ASBM systems than their proxies, the Houthis do. That’s to say nothing of the drone swarms that Iran routinely operates.
Speaking of drones, Iran utilizes the ubiquitous Shahed-136 suicide drone. By launching simultaneous attacks from multiple directions, Iran could attempt to exhaust the carrier’s defenses munitions, creating an opportunity for a decisive strike. Indeed, this fight-to-exhaustion strategy is currently being employed by Iran against Israel’s advanced national air defense system, the Iron Dome. It is starting to work after days of lobbing swarms of missiles, hypersonic weapons, and drones at Israel.
Tehran Needs to Succeed Only Once
As for the ASBMs, systems like Iran’s Khalij Fars and the Hormuz series of ASBMs were designed to target large naval vessels. These missiles, with ranges of 186 miles, combine speed and maneuverability to evade missile defenses. A salvo of ASBMs, launched from coastal batteries or mobile platforms—especially if paired with drone swarms—could theoretically penetrate the carrier group’s defenses, if fired in sufficient numbers.
What’s more, Iran can deploy decoys or electronic jamming to confuse US radar systems. The Navy’s SM-3 and SM-6 interceptors, deployed on Aegis-equipped destroyers, are specifically designed to counter ballistic missile threats. And the Nimitz’s mobility would make it a challenging target for unguided or semi-guided munitions.
While there are plenty of redundancies even on America’s oldest operational carrier that would make it an extremely difficult target, the complexity and size of Iran’s ASBM and suicide drone arsenal should keep US Navy planners up at night. If sufficiently provoked by an American strike on Iran, Tehran just might go for broke in sinking or damaging the American carrier as a Parthian shot.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert, a Senior National Security Editor at The National Interest as well as a contributor at Popular Mechanics, who consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including the Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, the Asia Times, and countless others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
Image: Wikimedia Commons.
