Israel has been far more effective in killing key members of the Iranian regime, particularly its high-ranking military leaders, than in bombing its nuclear facilities—hinting at its true motivations.
When analyzing the targets that have been hit the most in the ongoing Israeli air war against the Islamic Republic of Iran, it is obvious that the conflict is less about its stated mission of ending Iran’s nuclear weapons program and more about annihilating the regime.
Indeed, given how many senior regime leaders have been killed since the start of the air war last week, it should be obvious that the Israelis are far more interested in ending the regime than they are in ending the nuclear threat.
Understanding the True Targets of the Israeli Airstrikes
The first thing to understand is that the Israeli airstrikes, while comprehensive and impressive, have not sufficiently destroyed all the nuclear weapons development sites. This is because Iran’s nuclear sites are dispersed throughout the country—and are inside hardened facilities deep underground.
Israel lacks the bunker-busting bombs needed to get down deep to the nuclear sites in order to destroy them. The Israelis can damage these sites—and they have. Yet, the IAF cannot fully destroy them with the limited conventional weapons they possess.
Of course, Israel could drop tactical nuclear weapons on the targets in question. That would certainly destroy them. However, it would also mark the end of the post-1945 taboo on nuclear weapons use—and open up a Pandora’s box that Israel would much rather remain closed. If the Iranians conducted a successful strike on Israeli nuclear energy plants—or somehow managed to hit an Israeli city with a rudimentary nuclear weapon—the IAF would seriously consider dropping low-yield nukes on suspected Iranian nuclear weapons sites. Until then, that danger is likely minimal.
Israel has been far more effective in killing key members of the Iranian regime, particularly its nuclear scientists and high-ranking military leaders. Indeed, it is believed that one of the reasons the Iranian retaliation took so long to get underway was because of the loss of key leaders in Iran’s command-and-control network. The obvious message to the Iranian regime was that the IAF could kill Iran’s top leadership whenever it pleased.
The Israel-Iran War Is Going to Escalate
Now that more than 20 various American refuelers are moving from the United States toward Europe, many are wondering if this is the buildup to a major escalation by the Israeli-US alliance. Could the United States be readying to intervene directly? Even if not, the fact that the Americans might be moving so many assets into the Mideast should indicate how serious the push against Iran is.
Moreover, seemingly out of nowhere, the Crown Prince of Iran—Reza Pahlavi, the son of the Shāh deposed in 1979—has appeared and started calling for the end of the regime. In the past, Israel has advocated for the end of the Iranian regime and highlighted a restored constitutional monarchy as one possibility to replace it. With so many targets in this ongoing air campaign being leaders rather than nuclear sites, it is clear that Jerusalem’s true goal is regime change.
For now, in spite of the damage that Iran has inflicted on the cities of Israel with their missiles, drones, and hypersonic weapons, the Israelis are winning the war. American assistance, however muted in the press, is proving to be decisive in this endeavor. There is no way that this war will end only with Iran’s nuclear sites being destroyed.
That’s where American leaders should be careful, though. There is no doubt the US and Israel can handle the warfighting side of the conflict. The problem is in the postwar situation. Undoubtedly, with regime change very much on the table, the Israelis will be unable and unwilling to commit resources to stabilize postwar Iran. Nor will the local Arab powers. They will demand that the United States go it alone—and that’s usually where the United States has gotten into trouble in the past.
One way or another, though, the Iranian regime will be no more. This was always the plan of both Netanyahu and Trump.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert, a Senior National Security Editor at The National Interest as well as a contributor at Popular Mechanics, who consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including the Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, the Asia Times, and countless others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
Image: Shutterstock / noamgalai.
