Right now, the Trump administration is clearly reluctant to directly engage in the war. A credible threat—or attack—on Israel’s nuclear facilities would change that.
In the age of “wars and rumors of wars,” the newest worry is that the Iranians—or one of their allied militia groups sown throughout the Middle East—are planning to strike Israel’s Dimona nuclear reactor. This is not a baseless fear—not only because war is naturally an unpredictable and savage affair, but also because there is a disturbing precedent for such events.
Just look at the ongoing Ukraine War, in which nuclear power reactors have become targets of the warring sides—so much so that the Trump administration was compelled to ask both sides to allow for the United States to take over Ukraine’s power plants, so as to remove them from Russia’s target set.
Iran’s nuclear weapons program has been an understandable concern both for the Israelis and the Americans. This fear is nothing new—and totally legitimate, given the ideological underpinnings of the Iranian regime.
The Logic of Israel’s Attack on Iran
For Iran’s Islamist leaders, the quest for nuclear weapons is synonymous with the quest for regional power over both their Sunni Arab neighbors and their “satanic” enemies in Israel and the United States. Indeed, acquiring nuclear weapons has become one of main sources of legitimacy—such that it is—for the Iranian regime in today’s Iranian political scene.
The Israeli strikes on suspected Iranian nuclear weapons sites have not only damaged the technical aspects of Iran’s nuclear program. They have also harmed Iran’s source of legitimacy—all while undermining the fear with which they once ruled and terrorized the Iranian people. In other words, just as Iran’s threat is existential for Israel, the Israeli and American military threat to Iran’s nuclear weapons program is equally existential for the Islamic Republic.
What’s more, the Iranian leadership has sustained a record number of casualties as a direct result of Israel’s ongoing air campaign against Iran. In fact, the Israeli airstrikes have spent more time and ammunition attacking the locations of Iranian military leaders and nuclear scientists than they have dedicated to destroying Iran’s suspected WMD sites. Thus, the Iranian regime correctly views the Israeli and American strikes as more than just an attempt to curb Iran’s unwanted threat of nuclear weapons development. It is regime change by another name.
Therefore, in the eyes of the Iranians—who are clearly poorly matched in a toe-to-toe fight against Israel, but have certain advantages in an asymmetrical fight—using their enormous missile arsenal to target nuclear reactors, such as those at Dimona, is a legitimate move. Nevertheless, Tehran should realize that it would be a massive strategic blunder.
Trump Cannot Abide an Attack on Dimona
And the Trump administration has been consistent both in the Ukraine War and the recent India-Pakistan War, when the Indians targeted Pakistani nuclear weapons facilities and command-and-control facilities. Once New Delhi started doing that, both Trump and the rest of his foreign policy team got the Indian government to announce a unilateral ceasefire after one phone call.
The Trump administration will clearly view any direct attack on nuclear assets, whether they be civilian or military, in Israel as an unacceptable risk to global security. It is that contingency that Americans concerned about getting embroiled in another Middle East war must now be aware of. Iran feels like its very existence is threatened, and the Israelis are desperate to destroy those nuclear facilities and dismantle the Islamist regime of Iran. So there will be no negotiated settlements here—only escalation.
With each escalation comes the very real worry that something will force the Americans into the war. An attack on American bases or embassies in the region by Iran or an attack on the Dimona nuclear power reactor that triggers a nuclear event would be the two scenarios that draw the US military into a direct fight with Iran.
This is precisely what Israel wants.
The Netanyahu government’s opening strikes on Iran were tactically brilliant. But they were unsustainable. Without American support—and the mighty bunker-busting bombs of the United States—the Israelis will be unable to effectively target Iranian WMD sites. Right now, the Trump administration is clearly reluctant to directly engage in the war. A credible threat—or attack—on Israel’s nuclear facilities would change that.
Trump’s team could not afford to be seen as being blasé toward nuclear warfare. They would respond—and that response would be harsh. If Iran refrained from such an attack, the outcome would be far better for both Washington and Tehran.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert, a Senior National Security Editor at The National Interest as well as a contributor at Popular Mechanics, who consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including the Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, the Asia Times, and countless others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
Image: Shutterstock / barmalini.
