US space leadership is at risk without urgent action on launch emissions, orbital debris, and space sustainability.
With the recent social media feud between President Donald Trump and Elon Musk, the United States’ role in space appears to be entering a precarious period, as government and commercial industry clash, potentially undermining long-term space sustainability. As the new Space 2.0 race accelerates, the United States operates 20 launch facilities across 10 states, and it remains one of only three countries, along with Russia and China, with the capability to launch humans into space. It also leads the world in the number of private space companies, with 382 companies headquartered in the US, spending a cumulative $6 billion in 2024. After Felix Baumgartner’s historic jump from the stratosphere, some even joked that Red Bull had a more impressive space program than NASA. The space economy could represent a $1.8 trillion business opportunity by 2035, attracting the attention of companies such as SpaceX, Blue Origin, and Virgin Galactic.
The industry is now focused on developing more cost-effective and efficient space technologies, while also exploring new markets such as space tourism. In April 2025, Blue Origin flew an all-female crew to the edge of space, featuring celebrity passengers including Katy Perry, Gayle King, and Lauren Sanchez. Beyond the commercial sector, the US government has allocated $25 billion to NASA—the largest space budget in the world—and $29 billion to the United States Space Force for fiscal year 2025. SpaceX alone has secured nearly $18 billion in government funding over the past decade, including $3.8 billion in fiscal 2024. As Elon Musk and President Trump broker a fragile peace, the United States must remain focused on its long-term space ambitions.
Space Sustainability Must Become a New Frontier for US Leadership
With space activities projected to increase, space sustainability should loom large on the United States government’s agenda. The government laid the foundation for profitable space exploration with the Commercial Space Launch Act in 1984, and now, more than 40 years later, the US needs to step up again. Last year, the United States carried out 158 space launches, adding 2,176 new objects to orbit. Today, more than 60% of all active satellites belong to the US. Since the original space race began in the 1950s, the United States has put 11,969 objects into space, contributing almost half of the total. This number keeps growing each year.
Guardrails must be established to ensure space does not become a junkyard, too congested with objects to safely use its orbits. In addition to flying debris, space launches pollute the Earth’s atmosphere with harmful emissions, the full effects of which are still unknown.
Launch Emissions Are Becoming an Increasingly Urgent Environmental Problem
Since the early 1970s, scientists have been studying the effects of launch emissions, which depend on the type of propellant used and the number of launches. Historically, the impacts were generally deemed minimal due to relatively low launch frequencies. Today, however, hundreds of launches take place every year, with upwards of 50 objects being released into the atmosphere per launch.
The climate impacts from these rocket emissions are now a growing concern. A 2010 study in Geophysical Research Letters examined what might happen if hybrid rockets began launching regularly, about 1,000 times per year. This study found that black carbon (soot) from rockets would form a persistent layer in the northern stratosphere. Moreover, regional ozone depletion, particularly in polar regions, could reach 5-6%, comparable to observed high-latitude ozone depletion caused by chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), chemicals phased out by the Montreal Protocol. The study also suggested possible warming at polar surfaces, which could affect sea ice coverage.
In addition, researchers identified that roughly 10% of stratospheric aerosol particles contained aluminum and other metals originating from spacecraft re-entry, causing significant changes in the stratosphere. Such metallic particles can affect the strength and seasonal duration of polar vortices, leading to temperature anomalies in the middle atmosphere at high latitudes and altering stratospheric circulation patterns. These changes can also impact stratospheric ozone, threatening to slow or reverse the recovery progress made under the Montreal Protocol and thereby indirectly increasing human health risks, including sunburns and skin cancer.
Starship Launches Pose a Significant and Growing Emissions Challenge
SpaceX recently attempted its ninth Starship launch, with the eventual goal of colonizing Mars after NASA’s Artemis program uses Starship for lunar landings. The Starship is designed to be completely reusable and is the largest spacecraft in the world, despite its low cost. For comparison, launching and operating a single military satellite for 15 years costs around $300 million, whereas SpaceX states it can build and launch a satellite for $60 million.
Andrew Wilson, an assistant professor at Glasgow Caledonian University in Scotland, estimates that a single Starship launch releases 76,000 metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent – 2.5 times the emissions of a Falcon 9 rocket. Despite three failed Starship launches this year, Elon Musk plans to launch three more within the next three months and has approval from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) for up to 25 Starship launches per year. Based on Wilson’s calculations, Starship launches alone could release 456,000 metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent into the atmosphere before the end of summer. That is roughly equivalent to annual emissions of 106,300 gasoline-powered cars or the annual energy consumption of over 61,000 homes.
Dr. Wilson’s estimates directly conflict with the FAA’s environmental review, which analyzed the increase from five to 25 Starship launches per year. While Dr. Wilson estimates 76,000 metric tons per launch, the FAA’s findings state the total annual emissions from all Starship launches would be just above 97,000 metric tons. Regardless of which estimate proves accurate, multiple Starship launches per year will inevitably result in substantial cumulative emissions, raising important questions about the environmental sustainability of rapidly expanding launch activities.
Orbital Debris Management Must Balance Safety With Environmental Impact
Orbital debris and emissions are connected because removing objects from space typically involves de-orbiting them into Earth’s atmosphere, where incomplete vaporization may produce harmful emissions. If these objects are not actively removed, Earth’s orbits could become dangerously crowded, potentially triggering the Kessler Syndrome—a series of cascading collisions in space that would render orbits unusable.
Over the last five years, the number of tracked debris pieces has dramatically increased; NASA is now monitoring over 30,000 large objects and estimates there are over a million fragments that are too small to track. The United States Space Force tracks over 11,000 active satellites. Collisions between operational satellites and space debris not only damage the satellites involved but also create additional debris, endangering other assets in orbit, both governmental and commercial. For instance, astronauts aboard the International Space Station face significant risks from collisions with orbital debris.
NASA recently reported that reducing the timeline for satellite deorbiting to five years would yield $7.6 billion in net benefits by lowering risks to space operations. Currently, the primary methods for removing objects from orbit involve either pushing them farther out into space or actively de-orbiting them into Earth’s atmosphere. Additionally, space operators conduct Just-in-time Collision Avoidance (JCA) maneuvers, which use propulsion systems or lasers to gently nudge debris away from potential collision paths. Between January and July 2024 alone, Starlink satellites performed over 50,000 JCA maneuvers.
The Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee guidelines recommend that all newly-launched objects be de-orbited within 25 years, with efforts underway to reduce this timeframe to five years. However, these guidelines fail to address objects launched before their publication or consider the atmospheric impacts of debris re-entry. The United Nations published the “Principles for the Long-term Sustainability of Outer Space Activities” in 2021. Unfortunately, these principles do not sufficiently address long-term space sustainability, as they do not consider the adverse effects of space activities on Earth’s biosphere, including launch emissions and re-entry particle pollution. Moreover, the UN guidelines are not legally binding and lack any mechanisms for enforcement.
The US Must Lead in Setting Global Space Sustainability Standards
You might not think about it, but Americans rely on space for everyday life. Smartphones use space-based GPS for real-time maps, including traffic updates. Banking apps depend on Precision, Navigation, and Timing (PNT) satellites to ensure accurate banking transactions around the globe. Kids’ soccer, football, and baseball games are canceled based on weather data gathered from satellites. Hurricanes, tornadoes, and wildfire predictions use space-based sensing to save lives. Increasingly, satellite connections also provide critical cell phone and internet coverage during disasters, becoming lifelines when traditional communication methods fail. Clearly, space-based capabilities are deeply integrated into modern society and are essential for maintaining our daily routines.
Given this reliance, protecting these assets is critical for national security and future economic development. With its advanced technological capabilities and established space leadership, the United States is uniquely positioned to guide the development of new technologies, policies, and treaties that protect current space operations.
The US should immediately lead the establishment of stronger international norms through the United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space. These norms should address space traffic management, orbital debris removal, and transparent monitoring of launch and re-entry emissions. Additionally, the US should advocate for classifying these emissions as ozone-depleting substances under the Montreal Protocol. The government can further protect space capabilities by incentivizing commercial companies to develop cleaner launch technologies and alternative fuels, such as converting space debris into reusable fuel or deploying active debris removal systems.
A crucial area for immediate investment, in collaboration with international partners, is on-orbit laser technology designed to remove debris fragments measuring between 1 and 10 centimeters. NASA estimates a net benefit of approximately $1.2 billion from removing 50,000 such debris fragments. On-orbit laser systems offer substantial advantages over ground-based solutions, requiring less power and more effectively managing orbital congestion. Additionally, jointly managing Active Debris Removal (ADR) operations could increase transparency and build international trust. The US Space Force could adopt ADR as a core mission area, much like the US Navy clears naval mines.
Finally, to fully achieve sustainability, we must address the current knowledge gap surrounding the impacts of launch and re-entry emissions. The US government should fund targeted atmospheric sampling missions to gather data on these particles in the upper atmosphere and evaluate their environmental impacts.
By proactively addressing space sustainability, the United States can lead globally, safeguarding critical space assets and Earth’s environment. Protecting space means protecting our daily lives.
About the Authors: Christina Balocki and Anna Broughel
Christina Balocki holds a Master of International Public Policy from Johns Hopkins SAIS and a Master of Science in International Relations with a focus on National Security Affairs from Troy University. She currently serves as an officer in the Air National Guard. The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Air National Guard, the Air Force, the Department of Defense, or the US Government.
Dr. Anna Broughel is a Lecturer in Sustainable Energy Transition Policy at the School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) at Johns Hopkins University and a member of the executive council of the United States Association for Energy Economics (USAEE). She worked as an energy economist at Tetra Tech and as a science and technology fellow in the US Department of Energy. She holds a Ph.D. in economics and policy, conferred by the State University of New York in association with Syracuse University.
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