Understanding Moscow’s nuclear triggers is vital for making calculations in any engagement with Russia.
With the Russia-Ukraine War escalating, understanding Moscow’s nuclear doctrine is an important part of calculating how to engage with Putin’s regime, especially in an open conflict.
While Russia’s nuclear doctrine has evolved significantly since the end of the Cold War, it still serves as a vital tool, especially in situations where the Russians feel outmatched in conventional terms.
Understanding Russia’s Core Nuclear Principles
The 2020 Basic Principles of State Policy of the Russian Federation on Nuclear Deterrence outlines scenarios that would trigger a nuclear response from Russia.
Firstly, Russia’s nuclear weapons are primarily used for deterrence. Moscow’s nuclear doctrine allows it to use its nuclear weapons if a nuclear or WMD attack has occurred against itself or its allies; secondly, if reliable information indicates a ballistic missile launch towards Russian territory (whether nuclear or conventional); thirdly, if an enemy attacks critical military or state infrastructure and disables Russia’s nuclear deterrent capabilities; and finally, if a conventional attack threatens the very existence of the Russian state.
Accordingly, understanding Moscow’s nuclear triggers is vital for making calculations in any engagement with Russia.
Russia Has a “Escalate to De-escalate” Doctrine
Russia’s nuclear strategy also includes a controversial concept: the use of a limited nuclear strike early in a conflict to “de-escalate,” or force adversaries to back down. The concept suggests that the use of a low-yield or tactical nuclear strike could potentially freeze a war on favorable terms for Russia, or dissuade NATO or other adversaries from making further escalations. Granted, the Russians have never stated officially that the escalate to de-escalate principle is part of their nuclear strategy. However, Western analysts believe the principle is implied through Russian military exercises and public statements.
Fortunately, the escalate to de-escalate doctrine was not practiced at the onset of the Russia-Ukraine War. However, escalations that occur within the scope of the war—for instance, if Ukraine continues launching drone attacks deep within Russian territory—could trigger a tactical nuclear strike. However, such a scenario seems unlikely at this point in the conflict.
Russia’s Nuclear Strategy Is Ambiguous by Design
Russia is cleverly ambiguous about its nuclear strategy, often blurring the line between its nuclear and conventional weapons. Moscow maintains the habit of conducting regular nuclear exercises, often involving tactical nuclear weapons. Moreover, in messaging no doubt calibrated for Western observers, the Russians incorporate nuclear threats in regional conflicts, most prominently in their war in Ukraine.
Since the beginning of the war, Putin and other Russian officials have repeatedly made nuclear threats, although the threats are often framed ambiguously. Moscow has also suspended participation in New START, its last remaining arms control treaty with the United States. Most concerningly, Russia has announced the deployment of tactical weapons for Belarus, breaking a longstanding post-Soviet norm.
In conclusion, the key objectives of Russia’s nuclear doctrine are as follows: deterring NATO and the United States; the reinforcement of great-power status through strategic parity; flexibility in escalation management, including tactical use scenarios; and ensuring regime survival.
About the Author: Harrison Kass
Harrison Kass is a senior defense and national security writer with over 1,000 total pieces on issues involving global affairs. An attorney, pilot, guitarist, and minor pro hockey player, Harrison joined the US Air Force as a Pilot Trainee but was medically discharged. Harrison holds a BA from Lake Forest College, a JD from the University of Oregon, and an MA from New York University. Harrison listens to Dokken.
Image: Shutterstock / SERSOLL.
