The war in Ukraine has demonstrated the vulnerability of modern helicopters to air defenses, drones, and electronic warfare, prompting Warsaw to question the future of the S-70i helicopter program.
Earlier this month, Poland’s Armament Agency announced the unexpected cancellation of a procurement process for 32 S-70i Black Hawk helicopters—a decision that sparked domestic debate and highlighted how Poland’s strategic priorities were shifting.
Initiated in 2023 under the previous Law and Justice (PiS) government, the Black Hawk acquisition aimed to modernize Poland’s Aeromobile Forces with helicopters produced indigenously by PZL Mielec, a subsidiary of Lockheed Martin. But the evolving geopolitical situation on Poland’s eastern front with an increasingly assertive Russian Federation forced the Polish government to pivot toward other military capabilities deemed more important for future warfare.
The Ukraine War Is Showing Poland What Works—and Doesn’t Work
The ongoing Ukraine War is of vital importance to Warsaw. Poland shares a border with Ukraine, and since the first days of the war, it has served as a key conduit moving supplies and personnel into Ukraine. The Polish military has watched the events in Ukraine closely—and applied the lessons learned to its own defense strategy.
Deputy Minister of National Defense Pawel Beja highlighted that the decision to cancel the Black Hawks was made in response to Russia’s recent military actions and their defense acquisitions. The war in Ukraine has demonstrated the vulnerability of modern helicopters to air defenses, drones, and electronic warfare, prompting Warsaw to rightly question the acquisition of S-70is and their role in future high-intensity conflicts.
According to Beja, the Polish General Staff’s Material Requirements Planning and Technical Modernization Plan—which remains highly classified—identified more urgent tasks than acquiring additional utility helicopters, such as the S-70i. Potential alternatives include drones, tanks, communication systems, or other platforms better suited to counter new battlefield threats, such as unmanned aerial systems (UAS) and loitering munitions that have defined the ongoing Ukraine War.
In any case, Poland has no shortage of helicopters. The Polish military has already purchased a range of other birds, including 96 Boeing AH-64E Apache Guardian attack helicopters to replace its aging Soviet-era Mi-24 fleet. That contract cost Warsaw $10 billion. It also signed a deal in 2022 for 32 Leonardo AW149 multirole helicopters, valued at $2.05 billion. These units will be delivered to Poland through 2029.
Poland is doing its best to lead the otherwise wayward European NATO members toward elevating their defense spending and modernizing and expanding their indigenous defense capacity. Warsaw has increased its defense spending to a whopping five percent of GDP—far exceeding NATO’s current two percent benchmark, even as many NATO nations have yet to meet that lower standard. With its increased budget, Warsaw wants to expand and modernize its air defense systems as well as their nascent space capabilities—notably by investing $134 million in a satellite earth observation system.
Warsaw’s decision to cancel the S-70i order affects their overall military modernization, notably Poland’s need to enhance existing helicopters by replacing the aging Soviet-era systems with newer S-70is.
The Helicopter Cancellation Is Tough—but Necessary
While the decision has understandably aggravated those Polish workers and industries reliant upon contracts for PZL Mielec, the fact remains that Warsaw’s decision was likely the correct one. The Ukraine War has proven that conventional systems, such as the Black Hawk helicopters, have rapidly decreasing value in the modern era of autonomous warfare.
Poland’s military leaders have correctly assessed that they must make their increased defense budget have a greater punch. Spending all their money on legacy systems like the S-70i Black Hawk is a poor investment. Investing in drone swarms, space surveillance, and more air defense systems are likely the better ways to spend that money to deter a potential future Russian invasion.
The world is long past the halcyon days of the post-Cold War era, when nations could afford to be sloppy on matters of national defense. Today, every second and dollar spent must be spent well—otherwise it could mean the end of that country. Poland’s choice to axe its valuable new helicopters is difficult, but wise. The rest of Europe should take heed and follow suit.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert, a Senior National Security Editor at The National Interest as well as a contributor at Popular Mechanics, who consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including the Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, the Asia Times, and countless others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
Image: Wikimedia Commons.
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