Beijing continues building capacity and executing on a methodical and long-term campaign of regional—and eventually global—dominance.
In what is surely a signal of long-term strategic intent, the Chinese have sailed their aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, and its battle group past Japan’s easternmost island. Once beyond that location, the Liaoning conducted landing and takeoff drills. This comes as the Chinese navy has intensified its overall operations in the waters surrounding Japan.
Right now, the Chinese are flexing their still developing strategic muscles. In another decade, the need for flexing will be long gone. After all, the core purpose of China’s military buildup is the absorption of Taiwan into its growing co-prosperity sphere. Beijing has said often that it would prefer to do this peacefully, but it will do it, one way or another. The People’s Liberation Army is preparing for a range of possible strategies, using varying degrees of force—ranging from a blockade—inevitably labeled a “quarantine”—that forces a regime change on the island to a full-blown invasion.
China Wants Everything to the West of Hawaii
China’s reason for demanding Taiwan is simple. Beijing seeks to dominate its end of the Indo-Pacific. In 2008, the head of China’s People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) met with the then-head of the US Navy’s Pacific forces and ruefully suggested that everything to the west of Hawaii be made a concern of the PLAN, and everything to the east of Hawaii be the purview of the US Navy.
Many thought the Chinese admiral was joking—and indeed, the PLA later downplayed the remarks. But the admiral was simply expressing an opinion voiced at the highest levels of power in Beijing. Now, with Xi Jinping secure in Zhongnanhai as president-for-life, it is sure that this plan is methodically moving from a rueful suggestion to a painful reality.
Geography is the key to understanding Chinese ambitions. Geostrategists have divided the Pacific into the three correlated island chains. The first runs from the tip of the Kamchatka Peninsula down through Japan, cutting south to Taiwan, and ending in the Philippines. Currently, the Chinese are crawling all over the South China Sea (SCS) and impinging on the sovereignty of the Philippines on an almost daily basis. Taiwan, though, is the linchpin of the First Island Chain.
If China captures Taiwan, they have acquired the beating heart of the First Island Chain. Once they have achieved that heart, they can send the geopolitical equivalent of a cardiac arrest throughout the rest of the chain—especially Japan.
The Second Island Chain, which is closer to where the Liaoning and its carrier group are now operating, runs from Japan southward through Guam and Micronesia all the way down to Indonesia. China is currently demonstrating and testing their capabilities to threaten Japan, which is the only significant threat to China militarily in the region. Once Taiwan can be taken by Beijing’s forces, and with their demonstrated ability to operate in the waters to the east of Japan, Beijing can begin an encirclement strategy of Japan.
China’s Long-Term Strategy Is Paying Off
We have already seen how Chinese covert political warfare operates in South Korea. There can be no doubt that Beijing favored a victory of the liberal Democratic Party of Korea, which seeks greater ties with China (and rapprochement with North Korea) and further distance from the United States. In the run-up to that election, pro-Chinese elements did all they could to secure the victory of DPK leader Lee Jae-myung; now that Myung is in office, a serious resetting of relations with Washington is already underway. A new paradigm will undoubtedly favor Beijing, ensuring that the Americans cannot rely upon the South Koreans in any contingency plan over Taiwan.
If China can successfully take Taiwan soon and pivot their efforts around pressuring Japan to comport more closely with Beijing’s strategic preferences, then China will have achieved a grand strategic victory—pushing the Americans out, reclaiming their supposedly “lost” Taiwanese province, and subordinating their rivals in neighboring Japan.
That’s why witnessing these Chinese naval drills occurring so far from the Chinese mainland is disconcerting. These are sequential events, not one-offs. Beijing continues building capacity and executing on a methodical and long-term campaign of regional—and eventually global—dominance.
Thus far, there seems to be little will or ability in Washington to stop it. Very soon, even if the will is there, the capability to rollback Chinese gains within and beyond the First Island Chain will be extremely limited. At that point, Washington will need to strategize what parts of the second chain they can maintain.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert, a Senior National Security Editor at The National Interest as well as a contributor at Popular Mechanics, who consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including the Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, the Asia Times, and countless others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
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