Ukraine’s strike on Russian bombers dealt a massive blow, as the aging Tu-95 fleet is irreplaceable, with limited reserves and no viable production, highlighting Russia’s shrinking strategic air power.
Ukraine has claimed that its Operation Spiderweb may have destroyed or seriously damaged as many as 40 of Russia’s strategic bombers, while other sources confirmed just 13 were destroyed or damaged. Even the lower-end number would be a severe blow to the Kremlin.
For starters, before the recent drone attack, Russia was estimated to have around 55 to 60 Tu-95 aircraft in operation. The Cold War-era warplane remains the primary strategic bomber of the Russian Aerospace Forces, as it can carry cruise missiles and various conventional weapons. Losing any reduces Moscow’s aerial capabilities.
“A strategic bomber costs an astronomical amount,” Oleh Katkov, editor-in-chief of Defense Express, said in a Telegram post.
“The losses amount to billions of dollars, and Russia cannot replace them. Its value isn’t even measured in money, especially for Russia. To illustrate, a modern strategic bomber costs over a billion dollars per unit, simply because so few are produced.”
The biggest issue is that Russia no longer produces the bombers. While production resumed in the 1980s, with a modernized version introduced, the last Tu-95 rolled off the assembly line in 1992. Russia can’t produce more of them and must rely on the limited reserves.
Beyond the fact that so few were built, attrition has taken its toll.
Unlike its Cold War tanks, which the Kremlin maintained thousands of in long-term storage depots, Russia is believed to have fewer than a dozen spare Tu-95s that could be returned to service. Even if it had larger numbers, bringing a bomber back to service is far more complicated than a tank or other land-based platform.
Russia Is Running Out of Reserves
The US Air Force has maintained around a dozen and a half Rockwell B-1B Lancers at the famed “Boneyard” at Davis-Monthan Air Force Base (AFB), Arizona. Two B-1Bs were successfully returned to service, replacing two other aircraft that suffered catastrophic damage, but getting there was no small undertaking.
It took several months to restore each of those bombers to airworthiness, and that was after the aircraft were carefully preserved well in advance.
As previously reported, aircraft sent to the Boneyard aren’t simply left to soak in the sun. Each B-1 was maintained in Type 2000 storage, one level below the flyable Type 1000 storage. That entailed covering the aircraft with a silicone-like sealant, which fills gaps, covers engines, and seals all glass.
Outside of Moscow, the Russian aerial “cemetery” at Lukhovitsy has returned some aircraft to service in recent years. However, based on the photos, preserving the aging aircraft doesn’t require the same level of effort. Some old warbirds have been spotted at the storage facility, and little more than a tarp has been thrown over them as protection against the weather.
Moreover, the Boneyard’s location at Davis-Monthan AFB is, by design, based on its lack of rainfall and low humidity, and few places in Russia are nearly as accommodating. Lukhovitsy is known for its cold winters and a lack of rain in the spring and fall.
China Can’t Keep Up with American Aircraft Production
China continues to produce its Xi’an H-6, a twin-engine jet bomber based on the Soviet Tupolev Tu-16. However, current estimates suggest that the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) has around 231 in service, far lower than the 744 Boeing B-52 Stratofortress bombers built in the 1950s and early 1960s.
By contrast, aside from the new Northrop Grumman B-21 Raider, which is now in low-rate initial production (LRIP), the United States Air Force last received a new bomber in 1997, when production of the Northrop B-2 Spirit ended. Only 20 were produced, along with one prototype.
Russia’s bomber production ended in 1992, when the last Tu-95MS and Tu-160 (NATO reporting name Blackjack) were completed and delivered to the Russian Aerospace Forces. Russia is reportedly developing a stealth bomber, the PAK DA, but it could be years before it enters service.
It is unlikely to reach full-rate production (FRP) for years, and even then, a dozen might be built annually. By contrast, during the Second World War, the US constructed nearly a dozen B-17s daily, and peak production in April 1944 saw 16 Flying Fortresses roll out of Boeing’s Plant 2 in Seattle!
The United States cannot achieve that production level again, nor can Russia. Thus, even if only 13 bombers were destroyed in Ukraine’s strike, it is a devastating blow. It will take years and billions of dollars for the Kremlin to recover.
About the Author: Peter Suciu
Peter Suciu has contributed over 3,200 published pieces to more than four dozen magazines and websites over a thirty-year career in journalism. He regularly writes about military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, politics, and international affairs. Peter is also a Contributing Writer for Forbes and Clearance Jobs. He is based in Michigan. You can follow him on Twitter: @PeterSuciu. You can email the author: [email protected].
Image Credit: Shutterstock/Sharkovski.
