On Sunday, June 1, Ukraine conducted a series of remarkable drone attacks inside Russia. During the preparations for the attack—reportedly planned up to 18 months in advance—Ukrainian drone carriers disguised as innocuous cargo containers were smuggled into Russia and parked near Russian air bases. On the day of the attack, they released hundreds of small but deadly drones onto those bases, destroying as many as 41 Russian long-range bomber aircraft. Russia seems to have been caught flat-footed by the attack; its air defenses were unable to detect the attack ahead of time or prevent it while in progress. In the days since, Moscow has promised heavy retaliation against Kyiv, while undergoing internal changes to better secure its air assets.
In the aftermath of the drone attack—codenamed “Operation Spiderweb” by Ukraine—Kyiv has cited it extensively for propaganda purposes, demonstrating its forces’ craftiness and the Kremlin’s ineptitude. Shortly after the attack concluded, the Ukrainian government shared images of the drones’ preparation, as well as footage of them striking their targets inside Russia. How was the operation conducted? How was Ukraine able to smuggle drone swarms into Russia, and position them in close proximity to its airfields, without detection?
The attack was remarkable not only for its brazenness, but also for its impact on Russia’s nuclear preparedness—long a “red line” for the Kremlin. Though the targeted Russian bombers were used in the Ukraine conflict to drop conventional munitions on Ukraine, they were also a key part of Russia’s nuclear strategic bomber force—forming the air wing of its nuclear triad. The drone attack also highlighted significant potential vulnerabilities in America’s own air defenses, leaving analysts at the Pentagon scrambling to respond. How significant was the strike? Does it damage Russia’s nuclear capabilities? Is there the risk of further escalation? And how should the United States react to better secure its own bases?
Finally, as Russia reels from the attack and prepares to respond, many within the Russian public sphere have argued that Ukraine would not have been capable of pulling off such a sophisticated operation without support from the United States. Conversely, Ukraine has insisted that it planned and conducted the operation entirely on its own, and did not inform Washington until after it was complete. The Trump administration has backed Ukraine’s account. Which side is more credible?
In this special edition episode of Three Questions, Paul Saunders is rejoined by Samuel Bendett, an advisor at the Russian Studies Program of the Center for Naval Analyses. In his role at CNA, Mr. Bendett is a military analyst specializing in uncrewed, robotic and autonomous military systems and artificial intelligence. He has also worked at the National Defense University on emerging and disruptive technologies, as well as for the U.S. Congress, the private sector, and nonprofit organizations on foreign policy, international conflict resolution, and defense and security issues.
Image: Shutterstock / Barillo_Images.
