The Kalibr submarine-launched cruise missile is one of several methods that the Russians will use to retaliate against the Ukrainians for their attack on Russian airbases deep inside the country.
If you’ve been following the recent news in the West, you might be under the impression that “Operation Spiderweb,” Ukraine’s recent surprise attack on two important Russian airbases in Siberia put an end to Russia’s long-range missile threat. Sadly, you’d be wrong.
On the whole, the media has dangerously misrepresented the events that transpired in Russia over the weekend. While the Ukrainians have managed to degrade—at least temporarily—Russia’s long-range strategic bomber force, Moscow has both multiple other bombers in the queue. It also has other modalities for launching strategically important long-range attacks on neighboring Ukraine.
Not only does Russia have a vast arsenal of land-based long-range strike weapons, but the Russian Navy has sea-based platforms, too. Notably, the submarines in Russia’s Black Sea Fleet are equipped with the Kalibr submarine-launched cruise missile (SLCM), the 3M-14 and its variants within the broader Kalibr family.
And these assets are already being deployed to the Black Sea—where it is believed that Russian submarines will participate in the upcoming massive retaliation that Russian President Vladimir Putin and his government are planning in response to Operation Spiderweb.
Understanding Russia’s Kalibr Missile System
The Kalibr SLCM enhances Russia’s ability to project power globally, deter adversaries, and conduct operations in contested environments. Launched primarily by Russia’s iconic Cold War-era diesel-powered Kilo-class submarines and the newer Yasen-class subs, this missile has gained prominence for its long range, versatility, and operational use—not only in Ukraine, but also in Syria during Russia’s involvement in that country’s civil war.
Russia’s Kalibr missile system was developed by the country’s Novator Design Bureau. It originated from Soviet-era research into cruise missiles, building on systems such as the Granat (SS-N-21 Sampson). While the Kalibr’s development first began in the 1980s, it became a priority during Russia’s post-2000 military modernization, driven by the need for advanced standoff precision weapons. The missile’s design emphasizes modularity, allowing it to be launched from various platforms, including submarines, surface ships, and even land-based systems. But the submarine-launched variant, particularly the 3M-14 land-attack missile, is optimized for stealthy, long-range strikes from underwater, leveraging the inherent survivability of submarines.
A subsonic, low-flying missile, Kalibr has a reported range of 932 to 1,553 miles, depending on its variant and payload—allowing submarines to engage targets deep inside enemy territory while remaining far away from contested waters. The system is powered by a turbofan engine, cruises at Mach 0.8 (slightly under 600 mph), and flies at altitudes as low as 65 feet above sea level to avoid advanced radar detection.
The missile’s guidance system incorporates inertial navigation system (INS), GLONASS satellite positioning, and terrain-contour matching (TERCOM) for mid-course navigation, with an active radar or electro-optical seeker for terminal guidance. This results in a highly accurate weapon. The Kalibr can carry a conventional high-explosive warhead or, in some configurations, a nuclear warhead, making it a dual-capable system.
Russia Has Advanced Variants of the Kalibr, Too
There’s an anti-ship variant that Russia produces, too, that features a supersonic terminal stage for enhanced lethality against naval targets, though the land-attack version is the primary focus of the submarine launches. As Ukraine lacks a navy, Russia’s focus in recent years has been on developing the main system—and it is these Kalibr missiles that will likely be deployed against Kyiv in retaliation for the surprise attack Ukraine conducted in Russia over the weekend.
What’s more, the Kalibr system aligns with Russia’s overarching anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) capability. In terms of size of their arsenal, Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate, or GUR, assesses there are around 400 Kalibr missiles in Russia’s stockpile. Of those 400 missiles, it is believed that 100-200 of those missiles are submarine-launched Kalibr missiles.
Of course, these claims may be inaccurate, as Ukraine has previously inflated or deflated numbers for political purposes. Kyiv’s claim that it destroyed 40 Russian aircraft during Operation Spiderweb, for example, seems to have exaggerated the real total roughly threefold. But even if this number is accurate and Russia only possesses 400 of the missiles, given the mass production capacity that the Russian defense industrial base has thus far demonstrated, Moscow is likely to prioritize expanding that arsenal—particularly in light of the weakening of its bomber force following Ukraine’s drone attack. Therefore, one can anticipate this number will at least double over the next six months or so.
Downside Risks of This System
Despite the strengths of the Kalibr cruise missile, its subsonic speed makes it vulnerable to advanced air defense systems like the Patriot or Aegis system. That’s why the Kalibr takes that very low-altitude flight path, as it reduces risk of being intercepted.
The missile’s reliance on GLONASS, Russia’s GPS system, for navigation can also be disrupted by satellite jamming or spoofing, which will disrupt its accuracy. However, the INS and TERCOM systems help to reduce the dependence of those missiles on GLONASS—though these are no substitute for satellite guidance.
In any case, the Kalibr submarine-launched cruise missile is but one of several methods that the Russians will use to retaliate against the Ukrainians for their attack on Russian airbases deep inside the country.
Between these systems and others—such as the Oreshnik—the jubilation in Kyiv and throughout the West might end up being the last hurrah before Putin unleashes terror on Ukraine, unlike anything seen since the Eastern Front of the Second World War.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert, a Senior National Security Editor at The National Interest as well as a contributor at Popular Mechanics, who consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including the Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, the Asia Times, and countless others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
Image: Shutterstock / Anelo.
