Ukraine coordinated a massive drone assault targeting Russian bombers and infrastructure on Russian soil, crippling 34 percent of its strategic fleet and exposing vulnerabilities in Moscow’s military defense.
During the tense Oval Office meeting in February, US president Donald Trump told Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky, “You don’t have the cards.” However, Zelensky had a few cards up his sleeve.
It was Operation Pavutyna (Spider Web). It saw waves of first-person view (FPV) drones strike Russian strategic bombers in coordinated attacks at four air bases, including the Belaya air base thousands of miles from Ukraine, while the Russian naval base at Severomorsk was also targeted.
As the smoke cleared on Monday, the extent of the damage became apparent. Upwards of 34 percent of the Russian Aerospace Force’s fleet of strategic bombers were destroyed, while the total costs could be as high as $7 billion.
Russia’s military bloggers have already labeled June 1 a “black day for aviation.”
Experts told The National Interest that these attacks severely blow up Moscow.
“Ukraine’s weekend wave of deep strikes marks a decisive evolution in the conflict, one with implications the Kremlin can’t easily shrug off,” explained geopolitical analyst Irina Tsukerman, president of threat assessment firm Scarab Rising.
“By simultaneously targeting remote air bases, likely including Olenya or Engels, key rail junctions feeding military logistics, and even the home port of Russia’s Northern Fleet in Severomorsk, Ukraine has pierced the myth of Russian strategic invulnerability,” Tsukerman added.
“These are not opportunistic hits on border depots. They are coordinated, high-value strikes aimed at the backbone of Russia’s war machine, executed with growing precision and reach.”
Expert’s Opinions on Operation Spiderweb
Sunday’s strike was the culmination of more than a year of planning, targeting deep within Russia. It served as an obvious reminder that despite Russia’s vastness, nowhere may be safe from Kyiv’s drones. The next strike could be anywhere.
“It was an extraordinary operation. But this was not a long-range attack,” said Dr. Matthew Schmidt, associate professor of national security and political science. “The drones were locally controlled. The one big thing that Russia will have to figure out is how this operation’s human intelligence succeeded. How did they get equipment into Russia?”
Schmidt suggested that this attack could significantly impact Russia’s near-term war effort. He told The National Interest that he had sources close to the operation.
“This attack is a major victory, both in military and moral terms, for Ukraine, and a corresponding defeat for Russia,” added Paul D’Anieri, professor of public policy and political science at the University of California, Riverside.
“Militarily, the attack has degraded Russia’s ability to launch air strikes on Ukraine, though we do not yet know to what extent,” D’Anieri continued.
“In terms of morale, Ukrainians will be heartened to strike such a significant and embarrassing blow deep inside Russia. The fact that Ukraine struck targets in Murmansk and Irkutsk, thousands of kilometers from the border, is a sign that Russia is much less immune to attack than its leaders and citizens would have believed.”
Russia’s Bomber Fleet Has Been Crippled
The most damaging blow may well be the reported destruction of the Tupolev Tu-95 and Tu-22M3 bombers, the Soviet-era strategic aircraft that Moscow has leaned on heavily for cruise missile launches against Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure.
“Reports are now suggesting that it’s taken out over 30 percent of Russia’s strategic missile capacity,” said Schmidt. “Many of the hypersonics you hear about are launched from these platforms. So this was a big deal.”
To suggest that they can’t be easily replaced is also an understatement, to say the least.
“These bombers are rare, labor-intensive to maintain, and irreplaceable in the near term,” added Tsukerman. “Russia can’t build more of them at scale; production lines for these models have long since shuttered, and even refurbishing mothballed frames takes years. Each destroyed or damaged aircraft doesn’t just reduce sortie capacity, it permanently shrinks Russia’s strategic options.”
Those aircraft, notably the Tu-95s, have been central to Russia’s capacity to project power in Ukraine and the wider Eurasian theater. Russia has also conducted more flights near Alaska to demonstrate its power in recent years.
“Each bomber destroyed or severely damaged represents the loss of decades’ worth of accumulated engineering, training, and systems integration that cannot be regenerated quickly, if at all,” said Tsukerman.
“The factories that once produced these aircraft have either been repurposed, lie in disrepair, or lack access to critical Western-made components that Russia can no longer legally import. This is not just a matter of waiting a few quarters for new deliveries; this is strategic atrophy.”
The destruction of the aircraft at the remote bases will force Russia to ration its remaining bomber fleet, limit the frequency of missile campaigns, and increasingly rely on less accurate, lower-yield alternatives like modified glide bombs or drones.
That may further reduce effectiveness and introduce growing risk to Russian air crews, forcing them to fly closer to frontlines where Ukrainian air defenses are improving.
“The psychological effect on Russia’s military doctrine, long predicated on the threat of standoff strikes from deep within Russian territory, will be profound,” suggested Tsukerman.
Russia’s Railroads Are Being Targeted
Though not as immediately significant as the strikes on the bombers, the targeting of rail infrastructure in Russia proper is beginning to strike at the logistical nervous system that underpins the Kremlin’s ability to shift workforce, armor, and ammunition from its central reserves to the Ukrainian theater.
“While Russia has considerable rail redundancy, repeated attacks, particularly in Bryansk, Kursk, or even deeper, force rerouting, delays, and increased vulnerability to further strikes,” said Tsukerman.
“The strain compounds as the war drags on. This undermines operational efficiency and the credibility of Russia’s internal defense mobilization model, which heavily depends on centralized logistics rather than decentralized, flexible supply chains.”
The War in Ukraine Is Now on Russian Soil
Though Russia had seen a few drone strikes carried out against its air bases in the past, and even saw Moscow targeted last year, it wasn’t until Kyiv launched its offensive into the Kursk Oblast the previous summer, the first invasion of Russia since the Second World War, that the war arguably came home.
With these drone strikes, the coordinated attacks on the railway lines and the Russian Northern Fleet’s home port, it is problematic for the Kremlin not to acknowledge that this is no longer a “special military operation” in Ukraine. It may label these incidents as “terrorist attacks,” but for the average Russian, this may be a true sign that the country is at war.
“For the Russian people, it’s getting harder not to see that they’re at war, and the cost that it is having on the homeland,” said Schmidt. “That might be the biggest benefit of negotiations coming out of this.”
The strike on Severomorsk, the heart of the Northern Fleet, may raise Moscow’s strategic concerns further.
“If Ukraine can strike this far north, it signals a capability that reaches across Russia’s vast military geography,” noted Tsukerman.
“That may force the Kremlin to stretch already scarce air defense resources to protect areas previously deemed low-risk. The long-term implication here is a defensive posture spread thin, with Russia now compelled to treat every corner of its territory as a potential frontline. This is not sustainable for a military already facing attrition across multiple domains: land, air, cyber, and deep-strike defense.”
A Russian response is almost sure to come in days or sooner.
Schmidt told The National Interest that Russia may carry out massive retaliatory attacks in the next few days or weeks, but the problem for the Kremlin is that the drone strikes have already weakened it. It may seek to make a symbolic gesture but gain little except for additional casualties.
Schmidt acknowledged that the more likely outcome is that it could push back the truce talks by months and even into 2026.
“This campaign of deep strikes is eroding Russia’s deterrent credibility, not only vis-à-vis Ukraine but also among its partners and adversaries. The aura of Russian strategic reach, whether through bombers, rail-based mobilization, or naval posture, is being replaced by a growing reputation for vulnerability,” said Tsukerman.
“China, Iran, and even Collective Security Treaty Organizations (CSTO) allies are watching, and what they see is not strength but increasing exposure.”
That will weaken Moscow’s ability to act as a regional hegemon or security guarantor, especially in the post-Soviet space. The attacks will also accelerate a creeping but very real strategic exhaustion.
“Russia is not just losing assets, it’s losing the ability to regenerate force at a time when Ukraine, with Western backing, is evolving tactically and technologically,” Tsukerman added.
“The more Ukraine proves it can reach deep into Russia with precision, the more it forces Moscow into the reactive, resource-draining posture, rather than shaping the battlefield on its terms. In the long run, that’s not just operational defeat, it’s strategic decline. And this war, increasingly, is a referendum on Russia’s staying power.”
Ultimately, it may prove that Trump was wrong and that Ukraine did have the cards. The question is whether Kyiv has other cards to play. It previously stopped Russia’s invasion in 2022, sank the flagship of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, and launched that invasion into Kursk.
“The attack shows that Ukraine still has some tricks up its sleeve, and can still do damage to Russia that not only will impede Russia’s ability to win this war, but also to reconstitute its military power in the years to come,” said D’Anieri.
“The timing is significant in two respects: Following a massive Russian air attack on Ukraine, the attack shows that Ukraine can fight back and can degrade Russia’s capacity for such strikes. Preceding as it does a new meeting concerning peace talks, the attack reminds Russian leaders that Ukraine is still willing and able to fight, and that Russia can still suffer major costs in the war.”
About the Author: Peter Suciu
Peter Suciu has contributed over 3,200 published pieces to more than four dozen magazines and websites over a thirty-year career in journalism. He regularly writes about military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, politics, and international affairs. Peter is also a Contributing Writer for Forbes and Clearance Jobs. He is based in Michigan. You can follow him on Twitter: @PeterSuciu. You can email the author: [email protected].
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