It is high time that US policy treats India and Pakistan for what they are: an emerging global power on the one hand and a bankrupt Chinese vassal state on the other.
There are few countries in the world that can dial both Beijing and Washington for support. One of them is Pakistan. The country has come to embody the phrase “running with the hare and hunting with the hounds.”
During the Global War on Terror, Pakistan simultaneously provided tacit support to the terrorist forces seeking refuge in its territories, fleeing American forces while at the same time supporting Washington as a non-NATO strategic ally.
Fast-forward to a post-Afghanistan world, Islamabad has maintained ties with both Beijing and Washington to leverage them when needed. This is particularly important during times of crisis like the recent one that arose after Islamist terrorists (likely sponsored by Pakistan) massacred mostly Hindu tourists in India’s Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir.
The terrorist attack by “The Resistance Front,” an offshoot of Lashkar-e-Taiba, a State Department-designated foreign terrorist organization, elicited a military and non-military response from India, including strikes on terrorist infrastructure deep in Pakistani territory. Pakistan subsequently escalated the conflict by launching drone and missile attacks on civilians, places of worship, and military installations in India, drawing a stronger Indian response that destroyed several Pakistani air bases.
For its part, the United States has publicly avoided taking sides between India and Pakistan. As a matter of fact, it has gone so far as to draw false equivalencies between the two countries, angering New Delhi and emboldening Pakistan. Pakistani military and government officials have even gone to the extent of holding celebratory rallies despite clear evidence that India dominated the short military conflict.
The United States’ relationship with India has undergone a radical transformation over the last two decades. The relationship built on immigration, technology, trade, and—more recently—critical and advanced supply chains has weathered many storms. It may very well weather this most recent kerfuffle.
At the same time, President Trump, speaking extemporaneously, drew equivalencies between the two countries and suggested that he used trade as leverage to help broker peace between India and Pakistan. These statements have left many in India feeling “a sense of betrayal” and questioning the utility of the partnership. To make matters worse, Trump has boasted about his supposed role in brokering the ceasefire during his recent trip to the Middle East.
Interestingly, within 24 hours, India proposed retaliatory tariffs on steel and aluminum from the United States. But that may not be the end of the damage. Some analysts have suggested that the Trump administration’s statements may now potentially cost the US and the American defense industry billions of dollars in defense contracts, with the Indian establishment viewing the United States as an unreliable and fair-weather ally.
At the end of the day, though, all roads lead back to China.
Washington should not view the India-Pakistan conflict through the Cold War-era prism but through the broader Indo-Pacific security lens. India is a key Indo-Pacific partner and a vital node in the Quad grouping. Washington should wake up and smell the coffee—Pakistan is a proxy for China in South Asia.
Islamabad makes ample use of Chinese fighter jets and radar systems, is the largest recipient of Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) funding through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), and is increasingly looking to Beijing for support. Not to mention China’s indirect support of Pakistan-based terrorists. Most notably, in 2019, China attempted to block the UN Security Council from formally labeling Masood Azhar, leader of the State Department-designated terrorist group Jaish-e-Mohammed, as a terrorist and ordering a freeze on his assets.
While India is dependent on Russia for defense goods, its reliance on Moscow is slowly but steadily decreasing, with French and Israeli defense equipment replacing a portion of the imports. Plus, President Trump has not made Russia an enemy No.1 like Biden did but has prioritized his first 100 days on targeting China over trade and security concerns.
Beijing has few “allies” in the Indo-Pacific region. Pakistan is one of those few, with the relationship often described as an “all-weather” one. Former Chinese diplomat Victor Gao warned India in a television debate not to “underestimate China’s commitment to Pakistan to defend Pakistan’s legitimate interests of its sovereignty and territorial integrity.”
If President Trump were to compare and contrast the relationships between India and Pakistan, he would see that India is unmistakeably a larger market for American goods, a key node in the China+1 supply chain diversification strategy, and vital to Indo-Pacific security. Accordingly, it’s high time that our policy matches this reality and treats India and Pakistan for what they are: an emerging global power on the one hand and a bankrupt Chinese vassal state on the other.
Similarly, while President Trump’s off-the-cuff remarks have led to frustration, India should still consider critical technology and trade opportunities with the United States. Recent noise notwithstanding, New Delhi should continue to bet on the US-India partnership over the long term.
About the Authors: Akhil Ramesh and Samir Kalra
Akhil Ramesh is the Director of the India Program and Economic Statecraft Initiative at the Pacific Forum.
Samir Kalra is the Managing Director for Policy and Programs at the Hindu American Foundation.
Image: Rehan Waheed / Shutterstock.com.
