Iran’s military withdrawal from Yemen represents Tehran’s latest setback in its long war with America.
Quite a few policy analysts and journalists are labeling U.S. president Donald Trump’s ceasefire deal with the Houthis to be an outright military defeat for America. In fact, two writers, Alexander Langlois and Brandon J. Weichert recently wrote pieces for The National Interest on this subject: “What Donald Trump’s Deal with the Houthis Means“ and “The Houthis’ Parting Shot at Donald Trump.”
Langlois and Weichert respectively make some very compelling arguments to bolster their case. And to be sure, the U.S. Armed Forces definitely suffered some embarrassing tactical defeats during the bombing campaign against the Houthis, such as (1) the shootdown of seven MQ-9 Reaper drones, (2) the loss of not one but two F/A-18E/F Super Hornets off the aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman, and (3) the near-death experience for an F-35 Lightning II in spite of that warbird’s fifth-generation stealth technologies.
Is There More to the Fight Against the Houthis?
However, I’m not in complete concurrence with their declarations of U.S. defeat and concurrent Houthi victory. As I pointed out in my May 20, 2025, article titled “Was Operation Sindoor a Surprise Victory for India?”, tactical and strategic victory do not always go hand-in-hand.
In other words, you may outfight your foe on the battlefield and inflict more losses, but ultimately still lose in terms of broader objectives. To put it another way, “Win the battle but lose the war.”
Therefore, to offer a contrarian perspective, the Houthis may very well end up as the strategic loser on account of the forced withdrawal of its biggest backer, not to mention America’s primary foe in the Middle East: the Islamic Republic of Iran.
The Biggest Loser: Iran?
This contrarian perspective is based upon an article by Kansas City Star reporter Emily Prescott in an article republished on MSN on or about May 15, 2025, titled “‘Collapse’: Iran Withdraws Amid U.S. Airstrikes.” To wit:
“Iran has withdrawn its military personnel from Yemen, marking a decline in support for the Houthi rebels. This shift has come amid escalating U.S. airstrikes against the group, which aim to stop their attacks on commercial shipping. According to a senior Iranian official, the withdrawal aims to avoid direct confrontation with the United States and the risk of casualties among Iranian troops … Director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House Sanam Vakil stated, ‘Trump is trying to prove that he is more effective at ending and solving conflicts than the Biden administration was. [The strikes are] connected to the maximum pressure campaign that he has endorsed and he wants to simultaneously send a message to Iran and to the axis of resistance that his administration is going to take a bolder approach to destabilising regional activities.’”
Degrading Iran’s ability to support the Houthis is no small matter. Though the Houthis’ weaponry has cost considerably less money than America’s ultra-sophisticated and expensive fighter jets and aircraft carriers, they still don’t come for free, and unless the Houthis find a new sugar daddy (to so speak) to fill the void being left by the Iranians, their proverbial well is going to run dry sooner or later.
The Historical Backdrop to Trump’s Fight Against Iran
Regarding Trump’s “maximum pressure campaign,” as mentioned by Vakil, that of course is a resumption of his Iran policy from his first term. That campaign was primarily economic in nature—with a particular focus on bankrupting Iran’s oil revenues—but also featured a kinetic element, namely the killing of Qasem Soleimani, then head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Quds Force terrorist organization.
That killing of Soleimani marked America’s first direct military action against Iran since Operations Earnest Will, Prime Chance, and Praying Mantis in 1987 and 1988; in turn, these operations signified America’s first serious blows and partial payback for the act of war committed by the Iranian radical Islamist regime when it seized the U.S. Embassy in Tehran in 1979 and took our embassy staff hostage for 444 days.
In other words, the United States and Iran have been in an undeclared state of war (mostly non-kinetic) for the past forty-six years. Iran’s military withdrawal from Yemen represents Tehran’s latest setback in that long war.
About the Author: Christian D. Orr
Christian D. Orr was previously a Senior Defense Editor for National Security Journal (NSJ) and 19FortyFive. He is a former Air Force Security Forces officer, Federal law enforcement officer, and private military contractor (with assignments worked in Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kosovo, Japan, Germany, and the Pentagon). Chris holds a B.A. in International Relations from the University of Southern California (USC) and an M.A. in Intelligence Studies (concentration in Terrorism Studies) from American Military University (AMU). He has also been published in The Daily Torch, The Journal of Intelligence and Cyber Security, and Simple Flying. Last but not least, he is a Companion of the Order of the Naval Order of the United States (NOUS). If you’d like to pick his brain further, you can ofttimes find him at the Old Virginia Tobacco Company (OVTC) lounge in Manassas, Virginia, partaking of fine stogies and good quality human camaraderie.
Image: DVIDS.
