Even if Netanyahu believes that his forces can ultimately defeat Hamas in Gaza, the threats coming from the Houthis should have made the Israeli government think twice.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is going forward with his audacious plan to invade and re-occupy the flattened Gaza Strip indefinitely. Netanyahu claims it is necessary for Israel’s self-defense.
After all, Hamas has not been totally defeated. But perhaps the Netanyahu government should study the reason for why Hamas has not been fully defeated, despite having been subjected to a Stalingrad-like flattening military campaign in the wake of the brutal October 7, 2023, terrorist attacks. Instead, the embattled Israeli leader is doubling down on his previous strategy.
Already, the pushback has commenced. Having been warned by the Iran-backed Houthi rebels of Yemen with a missile attack—likely a Palestine-2 hypersonic missile—that struck “very near” Israel’s Ben-Gurion International Airport, the Israelis understandably were not cowed into acting in what they perceived as their own national interests.
The Houthis Are Targeting Israel’s Travel and Tourism Industry
The targeting of Ben-Gurion International Airport was a serious escalation by the Houthis, even if their initial missile strike was merely a warning to Jerusalem. After all, Israel’s economy is uniquely geared towards tourism, given its background as the “Holy Land” and the birthplace of the world’s largest religion.
While Israel continues running aircraft to and from Ben-Gurion International Airport, the fact of the matter is that sustained Houthi attacks on the airport will eventually make it too risky for commercial airliners to willingly risk damage or destruction by Houthi missiles. Over time, a Houthi campaign against Ben-Gurion could cripple Israel’s economy.
And for what? What were the Houthis demanding from Israel? To surrender and accept further October 7-style attacks? No.
The warning from the Houthis was that if Netanyahu followed through on his threats to invade and re-occupy Gaza, they would initiate an “air blockade” of Israel. Fundamentally, this was a deterrent threat. So long as Israel kept their powder dry on the matter of Gaza, the Houthis would leave Israel alone.
But Netanyahu—ever conscious of his image around the world—was undaunted. The invasion is already underway. Like clockwork, the Houthis came forward to reiterate their threat of a blockade. Now, the Houthis have threatened to fire their impressive long-range missile arsenal at the key Port of Haifa in Israel.
It is notable that last year, the Houthis imposed a similar blockade of the Port of Eilat, on Israel’s southern tip touching the Gulf of Aqaba. Indeed, the Port of Eilat was forced to declare bankruptcy last year after months of inactivity due to the Houthi missile threat. Eilat is much smaller than the Port of Haifa, accounting for only around five percent of Israel’s overall traded volume. And Israel made a full economic recovery following the bankruptcy of the Port of Eilat.
The Port of Haifa, however, is even more critical for Israel’s economy. And the Houthis are likely to pursue their successful tactics in Eilat against Haifa (and Ben-Gurion Airport).
This would create a far more dangerous situation for Israel. The Port of Haifa alone handles around 36.4 percent of all cargo traffic in Israel. What’s more, $92 billion of Israel’s economy comes from Israel’s robust export sector. So the kind of blockade that the Houthis are referencing will be highly damaging to Israel.
Consider also that the Iranian-supported Hezbollah just north of Israel in neighboring Lebanon has made repeated threats about using their own robust precision-guided munitions to hold hostage and destroy the Port of Haifa.
Israel’s enemies understand the significance of shutting down the Port of Haifa. Now add in Israel’s major airport and Eliat, and the Houthis could collapse Israel’s economy. The country would be reduced to relying upon the Port of Ashdod near Tel Aviv, which will likely be insufficient to meet Israel’s trade needs. And the Houthis could probably target that port, too!
The Houthis Have Israel Over a Barrel
Strategy is about timing. Being a good strategist means one must discern when there are real strategic opportunities to exploit and when there are false opportunities—the geopolitical equivalent of mirages.
At this point in time, Netanyahu’s decision to invade Gaza and re-occupy the area makes little sense. What’s more, even if Netanyahu believes that his forces can ultimately defeat Hamas in Gaza, the threats coming from the Houthis should have made the Israeli government think twice.
This isn’t about the appearance of bending the knee to a terrorist organization. That’s how it will be spun in the Muslim world. What’s really at stake is Israel’s survival. The Houthis or any other Iranian-backed proxy do not have to detonate dirty bombs in the heart of Israel. All they need to do is create enough uncertainty in the shipping, trade, and tourism industries with their missile threats and fusillades that it stunts Israel’s economy and shuts the country down. From there, over time, Israel’s ability to conduct long-term military operations will collapse as its economy implodes.
In short, the Gaza operation will make Israel less secure, not more. Bogging down considerable numbers of Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) in Gaza indefinitely, while the IDF is already overextended, with Hezbollah to the north just itching to avenge itself upon Israel, is an awful strategy.
Trump Is Giving Diplomacy a Chance. So Should Netanyahu.
Whether Netanyahu approves or not, the Trump administration has chosen to give diplomacy a chance. President Trump has already tacitly admitted that, after 30 days, the mighty United States Navy cannot defeat the Houthis. At the same time, Trump has striven to reorient the entire Middle East order with a commercial, not a military, approach. Trump is now even looking to make a deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Netanyahu should be holding fast, waiting to see what deal the Trump team can get from Iran. The Houthis have made clear that, so long as Israel does not move into Gaza, it will not threaten Israel. But Netanyahu seemingly cannot constrain himself. So, here we are.
Israel is on a knife’s edge. Any other Israeli leader would recognize that now is the time to pause and wait to see what fruit Trump’s bold diplomacy yields. But Netanyahu continues risking his country with useless acts of aggression against Gaza—in which the Hamas terrorist network is firmly entrenched.
If anything, Hamas is hoping for a gruesome Israeli invasion so they can rally more of the Muslim world to their cause. Jerusalem must stop the attack and wait for the diplomatic efforts to bear fruit. To be clear, they may not. But until we know for certain, Netanyahu is needlessly jeopardizing his country.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert, a Senior National Security Editor at The National Interest as well as a contributor at Popular Mechanics, who consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including the Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, the Asia Times, and countless others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
Image: Shutterstock / Roman Yanushevsky.
