The Houthis likely have access to both hypersonic missiles and satellite-based targeting data—creating a crisis for the U.S. Navy ships in the Red Sea.
Ansar Allah, the formal name of the so-called “Houthis,” first emerged from the chaos following the reunification of Yemen in the 1990s. The movement comes from the Zaydi Shia Muslim majority in northern Yemen—which long dominated northern Yemen, but abruptly found itself in the minority after North and South Yemen were unified in 1990.
The movement grew in power during the reign of President Ali Abdullah Saleh, who governed northern Yemen from 1978 to 1990—and then a unified Yemen from 1990 until 2012. Though Saleh was a Zaydi, he was also notoriously corrupt and widely unpopular. When the Arab Spring swept across the Middle East in 2011, Saleh saw the writing on the wall and announced that he would not run for re-election. After narrowly dodging an assassination attempt in June 2011 and seeking medical treatment in Saudi Arabia, he surrendered power that November to his deputy, Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi.
Unlike Saleh, Hadi was a Sunni Muslim from the country’s southern half. Also unlike Saleh—who was renowned for his craftiness as well as his venality—Hadi was incompetent, weak, and slavishly loyal to Saudi Arabia, further alienating the Zaydis of the north. Under Hadi, the al-Islah party, Yemen’s branch of the Muslim Brotherhood, was favored and grew in power, with Saudi Arabia’s tacit approval.
Ultimately, the situation was untenable. In 2014, the Houthi movement launched a revolt, capturing the Yemeni capital in Sana’a. With the help of the Saudis, the Sunni element of Yemen waged war against the Houthis for years. The Houthis, however, consistently enjoyed the upper hand in the fight, because Hadi’s regime had long been associated with corruption, inefficiency, and foreign influence.
Further, just as the Saudis were backing the Islamists’ play in the south of Yemen, the Iranians were supporting the Houthis. According to Drs. Bernd Kaussler and Keith A. Grant, “the Saudi leadership pursued a maximalist position to reinstate the Hadi government at all costs, while Iran merely wanted to ‘bait and bleed’ Saudis into a costly and lengthy asymmetrical war.”
Tehran’s plan worked. Today, the Houthis still hold the upper hand in Yemen—and thanks to their close relationship with Iran, have solidified their position in the country. Indeed, the Houthis have become so powerful and entrenched in Yemen that not even the U.S. Navy appears able to fundamentally break their ability to threaten regional security.
The Houthi-Iran-China-Russia Nexus
Thanks to their alliance with Iran, the Houthis have enjoyed extended cordial relations with both Russia and China. Between Iran and Russia, they have been granted an incredible—and growing—array of advanced missiles that can hit targets as far away as Israel.
Among these missiles is the Palestine-2, which is a derivative of the Iranian hypersonic weapon, the Fattah-1. That weapon likely came from the Russian hypersonic weapon arsenal.
Moreover, China’s relationship with the Houthis has reportedly led to Chinese satellite firms assisting the Houthis with more precise targeting of U.S. warships, particularly American aircraft carriers. This is obviously a benefit to China, seeing as the U.S. carrier is the most serious threat they would face in a conventional war with the United States over Taiwan. Weakening America’s carrier force, or demonstrating a reliable ability to track, target, and destroy with accurate anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBMs), would serve as a powerful deterrence.
As for the Houthi-Iran-Russia alliance, that gets more troubling—particularly for those American carriers patrolling the waters off the Yemeni coastline. Last fall, Reuters reported that Iran mediated talks between Moscow and the Houthis to transfer ground-launched P-800 anti-ship cruise missiles to Sana’a.
This system is a hypersonic weapon—and combined with the accurate satellite-provided targeting data from China, could ensure the Houthis could cripple or sink an American carrier at their will.
This Is Why Trump Needs to Rethink Everything
The Trump administration must pull back its expensive assets, notably the aircraft carrier, until a more effective countermeasure to the Houthis’ impressive missiles can be crafted. Hanging around within the range of these systems invites disaster.
Beyond that, giving the Houthis that kind of victory, when they have already effectively made a case for why they are representative of the will of the “oppressed peoples” of the region, will ensure that true defeat for the United States and Israelis becomes a frightful reality.
American and Israeli strategists must rethink their entire approach to the Houthi problem set before they are plied with more advanced weapons from Iran, Russia, and China. Otherwise, the temptation to use them may be too great for them to resist.
Given the origins of the Houthi rebels, it is unlikely that any amount of bombing will make them disappear—any more than did 20 years of brutal warfare make the Taliban vanish in Afghanistan.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert, a Senior National Security Editor at The National Interest as well as a contributor at Popular Mechanics, who consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including the Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, the Asia Times, and countless others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
Image: Shutterstock / Mohammad Bash.
