Yet again, the Ukrainians are trying to pull the Americans into a deepening—and widening—commitment to their defense. It is not in America’s interests to go along.
When President Donald Trump was elected, he had spent the preceding campaign against former President Joe Biden and then former Vice President Kamala Harris lambasting them for their handling of the Ukraine War.
Trump accused Biden and Harris of essentially sleepwalking into war with Russia over Ukraine’s fate. He publicly lamented the prospects of a nuclear war erupting because of America and NATO’s involvement in supporting Ukraine. Trump insisted the war would have never happened if he had been re-elected in 2020. And he vowed that when he became president again, would “stop the killing” immediately.
Well, that’s not happening.
This week, the Trump team negotiated a new minerals deal with Ukraine that effectively ensures the United States will be tethered to Ukraine for years, if not decades. The American and Ukrainian governments are selling this so-called deal as a major win. For Ukraine, it certainly is. For the United States, though, it amounts to an extended commitment to Kyiv’s defense—at a time when the United States is already overextended all around the world.
The Ukraine Minerals Deal, Explained
The deal itself could be defended—perhaps—if it came with massive economic benefits to the United States. Yet as formulated, it covers only future exploration and exploitation of any resources discovered. America’s new deal with Ukraine does not cover any of the existing refinery projects.
Moreover, according to the deal, the Ukrainian government will have complete ownership of any resources those future exploration and exploitation missions uncover. Kyiv will further be the exclusive decider on which resources the Americans will be allowed to profit from.
Of course, that sounds like a good deal for the Ukrainian side. But what are the Americans getting out of it?
Remember, too, that roughly 40 percent of Ukraine’s rare earth minerals are found in the portion of the country that Russia now holds. Assuming a peace settlement of some kind where Russia keeps those areas, Moscow is not going to allow the Americans anywhere near them—at least not without demanding its own cut.
Then there’s the creation of the Ukrainian Reconstruction Investment Fund. As the name suggests, it is intended to pay for the rebuilding of decimated Ukraine. In this fund, the United States and Ukraine will have a co-equal participation in the rebuilding of Ukraine—and the United States will not have veto power over future development projects.
In other words, U.S. taxpayers are footing at least half of the reconstruction bill for Ukraine—and Washington will have no say in how those funds are deployed by Kyiv. Can you see the problem with this arrangement? Keep in mind, too, that construction is one of the most corruption-prone industries in the world—and Ukraine has a long track record as one of the most corrupt nations in Europe.
And for those Americans hopeful that the United States will get some of their money back, the deal explicitly declares that no direct remuneration for aid rendered by the United States to Ukraine during the war will be repaid.
The Minerals Deal Is Bad for America
Here’s the clincher, though.
The Trump administration has agreed to provide advanced technology to the Ukrainians for the development of its new projects. And the Americans must fund the development of new rare earth mineral development projects by 50 percent—all while providing defensive systems for these missions. Existing stockpiles and mines of Ukraine’s resources are not subject to this agreement.
In other words, yet again, the Ukrainians are trying to pull the Americans into a deepening—and widening—commitment to their defense. It is not in America’s interests to go along.
The American people understandably sympathize with the Ukrainians’ perseverance throughout the three-year conflict. But polls have consistently shown that they want the war to end—and for the United States to get out. Unless there are other moving parts of this deal that have not yet been advertised, it appears to commit U.S. resources more fully to Ukraine, instead of less.
Let us hope there is more to this picture than what is being portrayed to the public. Because as it stands, the deal recently signed between the Trump and Zelensky administrations is a bad deal for America.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert, a Senior National Security Editor at The National Interest as well as a contributor at Popular Mechanics, who consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including the Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, the Asia Times, and countless others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
Image: Shutterstock / Joshua Sukoff.
