The Ra’ad-II missile indicates Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal is extremely dangerous—a prospect that ought to alarm all international observers.
Pakistan and India are rapidly approaching a state of war. Though this war is likely to remain undeclared, the relationship between the two countries has broken down since the horrific Islamist terror attack perpetrated upon Indian national vacationing in Kashmir, which resulted in the deaths of 26 people.
Of course, both India and Pakistan possess nuclear weapons—likely limiting the scope of any conflict they might fight. But a conflict of some form seems more likely than ever. Both sides are now circling each other, their leaders spewing more vitriol, and their armies preparing to skirmish along the “Line of Control” (LOC) separating the two countries in Jammu and Kashmir.
Is an India-Pakistan Nuclear War Possible?
Those of us who follow international relations took for granted the relative peace that had existed on the Indian subcontinent over the decade or so since the last round of hostilities between Pakistan and India in 2019. The world has not spent much time worrying about the possibility of nuclear-tinged, ethnic and religious warfare erupting this year between Islamabad and New Delhi.
But global geopolitics is unpredictable. While many observers are doubtful that an actual conflict could erupt between the two rivals (and neighbors), the chances of an escalation are dangerously high. And alarmingly, Pakistan—which has struggled with instability in the wake of the removal of Prime Minister Imram Khan three years ago—may well lack the discernment needed to avert a nuclear conflict on the subcontinent.
Pakistan Is Preparing Its Nuclear-Capable Ra’ad-II Cruise Missiles
News has come out of Pakistan that the country’s armed forces are now loading out their warplanes with Ra’ad II (meaning “Thunder-2”) advanced air-launched cruise missile (ALCMs) and deploying those planes to the border with India. Ra’ad-II was first publicly revealed as a mock-up during the Pakistan Day Parade on March 23, 2017. On February 18, 2020, a Pakistani Air Mirage IIR successfully test fired the Ra’ad-II.
There have already been small skirmishes between the Indian and Pakistani armies. If the pattern holds, these smaller exchanges of fire will precipitate larger ones. It wouldn’t take much, therefore, for the Pakistani warplanes armed with Ra’ad-IIs—which are nuclear-capable—to launch these weapons and trigger a much greater crisis that would affect the entire world.
Pakistan’s Ra’ad-II is an upgraded derivative of the earlier Hatf-VIII Ra’ad missile, with improvements made in range, guidance, and the flight control systems. Officially, the weapons have a range of 370 miles. These weapons come equipped with state-of-the-art guidance and navigation systems, including inertial navigation systems (INS) and possibly terrain-hugging capabilities for low-altitude flight to evade radar detection.
A turbojet engine powers this missile, enabling low-altitude, terrain-hugging flight. Ra’ad-IIs have a reduced flight profile to enhance stealthiness while airborne. The weapon features a conventional tail fin configuration (X-shaped) compared to the twin-tail design of the Ra’ad-I.
Thus, the Ra’ad-II is more compact and potentially lighter than its predecessor, making it far more interoperable with a variety of Pakistani platforms.
The primary launch platform for the Ra’ad-II is the Pakistan Air Force’s Mirage IIR warplane. However, Islamabad has confirmed their intention to integrate the Ra’ad-II with the Chinese-provided JF-17 Thunder Block II. Some Pakistani military experts have speculated that the Ra’ad-II could be integrated with other platforms, such as the proposed Project Azm fifth-generation warplane.
India Is Far Stronger than Pakistan—So Nuclear Escalation Is Tempting
For the last decade, the balance of military power on the subcontinent has shifted decisively in India’s favor. For instance, India possesses a numerically superior air force and has rapidly advancing air defenses to counter what threats the Pakistanis can pose to their nation.
At the same time, India’s nuclear armaments are known to be more advanced than are Pakistan’s. To respond to this imbalance, the Pakistanis rededicated their efforts to both catching up with their foreign rivals next door numerically, but also to modernize their existing systems.
The Ra’ad-II is the apotheosis of this program. Despite this, however, the Pakistanis are too far behind their Indian rivals. Pakistan has more nuclear weapons than their rivals next door, but they are not as advanced. Further, their nuclear command-and-control capabilities are a disaster compared to India. But the Ra’ad-II is a significant system that indicates Pakistan’s arsenal is still extremely dangerous—a prospect that ought to alarm all international observers.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert, a Senior National Security Editor at The National Interest as well as a contributor at Popular Mechanics, who consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including the Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, the Asia Times, and countless others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
Image: Shutterstock / Anton Watman.
