A crucial part of anti-satellite warfare is thwarting the GPS navigation systems that modern “smart” weapons systems rely on—and Russia’s Tobol system may have cracked this code.
Russia has spent the last decade refining its counterspace capabilities. The Chinese have, too. But the Russians have been engaged in space operations far longer than have the Chinese. Counterspace just means the ability to deprive a rival nation of access to their space systems in a time of geopolitical crisis.
And the Russians have established for themselves a comprehensive counterspace capability that (should) keep US defense planners up at night, striving to overcome and mitigate those threats.
Starlink’s Weaponization—and Its Consequences
Since the start of the Ukraine War, some wild developments have occurred in the militarization of space. As the Ukrainians were about to be cut off electronically from the rest of the world by Russian electronic warfare (EW) methods, they pleaded with Elon Musk to send them some Starlink terminals. Musk did—and those Starlink terminals ended up being decisive in the defense of Kyiv.
Ever since then, the Ukrainian Armed Forces has relied upon Starlink to keep their forces linked together. Now, too, the Russian Armed Forces have started employing drones armed with Starlink systems they captured in combat with the fading Ukrainian Army.
Even though the Russians are now using the Starlink system, the fact that Musk’s innovative new satellite constellation—Starlink—was weaponized in the Ukraine War meant that both Russia and China went to work on various methods for killing this satellite capability.
How Tobol Overwhelms GPS, Galileo, and Starlink
Enter the Tobol anti-satellite (ASAT) weapon. Like the newer Kalinka ASAT weapon that was allegedly used by Iran to scramble the 40,000 Starlink terminals that anti-regime protesters were utilizing earlier this month, the Tobol system is an even more developed threat.
According to GPS World, there is a covert Russian electronic warfare base that is part of the Tobol system network near Russia’s western border with the Baltic states of Europe.
This system is believed to be involved in significant GPS jamming across the Baltic states and Gulf of Finland. The facility allegedly monitors NATO-related satellites and communications while attempting to disrupt allied navigation and tracking systems.
Since the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, GPS disruptions have increased for aviation and maritime navigation in countries bordering Russia—causing inaccurate or lost positioning data for aircraft and ships. In fact, as I pointed out in 2022 in a New Lines Institute publication, the first shots of Russia’s invasion were fired in space, making Ukraine a “space war.”
Meanwhile, a smattering of reports indicate that there is a “Great Baltic Jammer” network on multiple jamming stations that have relentlessly interfered with civilian GPS signals across the plains of northern Europe, even sometimes spoofing GPS to mislead navigation systems. This is all believed to be part of the Tobol ASAT system.
So, what exactly is Tobol?
Kaliningrad: Russia’s Counterspace Fortress in the Heart of Europe
Well, it is an electronic warfare system that, as noted above, is likely linked to jamming GPS and communications satellites (including Starlink satellites).
It is likely located in places like Kaliningrad, the Russian-controlled enclave sandwiched between Poland and Lithuania. Then known as Konigsberg in Germany’s East Prussia, the region fell into the Soviet Union’s hands in 1945—and was renamed Kaliningrad in honor of Old Bolshevik and Stalin’s nominal second-in-command Mikhail Kalinin. Today, the territory has been near-totally Russified, and is unlikely to ever leave the Kremlin’s orbit.
Tobol’s signal disruption method essentially blocks or, at least, significantly degrades satellite navigation frequencies by transmitting high-power interference across bands used by GPS, GLONASS, Galileo, and similar constellations. Because these satellite signals at around 20,000-kilometer altitude are extremely weak by the time they reach Earth, relatively powerful ground transmitters can overwhelm these signals.
Tobol is primarily a stationary set of ground-based complexes placed at strategic nodes, usually collocated with satellite monitoring and anti-space surveillance infrastructure. Some sources claim there are mobile components to the Tobol network, notably truck-mounted assets, that help to widen Tobol’s overall range. Of course, these details have not yet been confirmed.
Electromagnetic Fences Over Air, Sea, and Land
The system comprises large dish antennas and arrays that are visible in satellite imagery of the Kaliningrad enclave. This indicates that high-gain transmitters are used for directional coverage as well as broad-area interference, according to a detailed analysis conducted by NDTV.com. Those high-gain elements are consistent with infrastructure that could create what amounts to electromagnetic fences over critical air, sea, or land corridors.
As for command-and-control, GPS World, an industry publication, assesses that each Tobol likely includes SIGINT (signals intelligence) receivers, monitoring equipment, and operational control nodes that track satellite signals, adjust jamming parameters, coordinate with other EW and space awareness assets, and likely (as noted previously) protect Russian assets from foreign jamming.
Tobol is believed to be capable of both interfering with and spoofing satellite signals.
Pure jamming, as the name suggests, simply prevents receivers from locking onto satellite signals. But spoofing is an entirely different animal. Rather than denial of service as with jamming, spoofing merely tricks the system being targeted by interfering with its normal operation and getting it to send false positioning signals. Of course, this is harder to do than direct jamming, and most reports on Tobol focus on jamming rather than spoofing.
As for Starlink, Tobol allegedly targets the synchronization links (such as the GPS timing that Starlink terminals use for precise alignment), rather than direct downlink or uplink data streams. In other words, interference occurs at the receiver end rather than being a direct attack on satellites.
This is important because the disaggregated nature of Starlink’s satellites make their physical destruction possible but a costly endeavor. It is far more economical and efficient to employ a system, such as the Tobol, to use electronic means to disrupt the proper functioning of a system like Starlink.
How Tobol Shields Russian Forces from NATO Precision Strikes
There is some indication that the Tobol system might be used defensively as well as offensively.
For instance, Kaliningrad is likely to be a major target for NATO’s forces if an actual war ever erupted between the Russian Federation and NATO. By placing the Tobol network in Kaliningrad, Moscow can use the Tobol network to basically shield their sensitive military facilities in Kaliningrad from NATO attack.
Consider this: Tobol can be deployed to confuse satellite navigation or to shield key assets electronically from being targeted by NATO systems in war. Tobol could be used to electronically mask or even degrade NATO positioning data.
Russia is actively advancing electronic warfare systems that target both tactical communications on Earth, along with satellite navigation and communications infrastructure. Now that Musk allowed for his dynamic Starlink to be used for explicit military purposes (he’d argue with that description, but that is what the Ukrainians have used it for), it has become a key focus on Russian counterspace efforts.
US national security space policy leaders must take these Russian counterspace systems seriously. They just might lead to a real defeat of US forces on the Earth, if a war were to ever erupt between Russia and the United States.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert is a senior national security editor at The National Interest. Weichert is the host of The National Security Hour on iHeartRadio, where he discusses national security policy every Wednesday at 8pm Eastern. He hosts a companion show on Rumble entitled “National Security Talk.” Weichert consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. His writings have appeared in numerous publications, among them Popular Mechanics, National Review, MSN, and The American Spectator. And his books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. Weichert’s newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine, is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter/X @WeTheBrandon.
Image: Shutterstock / Dima Zel.
