Overall, Russia made progress on the battlefield in 2025—yet its advances came at a heavy cost, and there is little evidence of an imminent Ukrainian collapse.
2025 is at an end—but the new year brings little respite for either Russia or Ukraine, which will continue their war apace in the weeks to come. 12 consecutive months of hard-fought battles across hundreds of miles of battlefield in Ukraine did not end the war.
Russia Made Small Battlefield Advances in 2025
At the operational level, Russian forces made incremental territorial gains along parts of the contact line, predominantly in the Donbas.
Russia was able to capture or control some significant Ukrainian urban centers, including Toretsk and Pokrovsk, an important logistical hub in the Donetsk Oblast. Nevertheless, the Russian military failed to achieve an operational breakthrough anywhere on the battlefield. Although Russian commanders have somewhat adjusted their tactics, relying more on suicide drones and indirect fire to soften up defensive positions before they send in infantry, the Russian military is still largely incapable of waging effective combined arms warfare.
Moreover, the Russian forces failed to achieve any major objective in 2025 beyond some tactical and operational gains in certain parts of the contact line. In Kupiansk, for example, despite initial advances inside and around the town, the Russian forces lost much territory after a late counterattack from the Ukrainian military. The battle led to some humiliation to the Kremlin after Russian Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces General Valery Gerasimov and Russian President Vladimir Putin publicly claimed victory in Kupiansk—only for the Ukrainian military to liberate much of the town in the following days, after which President Volodymyr Zelensky took a selfie from its town center.
Russia’s Losses Are Heavy—but Apparently Sustainable
Moscow’s progress in 2025 reinforces the belief that the Russian military can only advance at an incremental pace at the cost of extremely heavy losses.
At the tactical level, both combatants have settled into a drone war on the battlefield. Although artillery remains the deadliest weapon, suicide drones account for a large number of casualties. The Ukrainian and Russian militaries employ suicide drones on a daily basis for attrition purposes, to deny territory, and increase the psychological burden on the enemy combatants.
At the level of casualties, Russian progress came through sustained pressure on the Ukrainian defenders. But that pressure came at a high cost. In 2025, the Russian military, paramilitary units, and pro-Russian separatist forces suffered approximately 400,000 casualties killed and wounded. That is the second consecutive year in which the Russian forces have suffered more than 400,000 casualties. These two years have brought the total casualty figures since the large-scale invasion began to approximately 1.2 million, with over 250,000 of those losses being killed in action. Data on Ukrainian losses is somewhat more difficult to gather, but these are thought to be smaller.
Despite Peace Talks, the War Will Continue into 2026
2025 is out, and 2026 is here. But the war in Ukraine continues with little concrete sign of ending soon.
To be sure, for several months now, there have been intense peace negotiations among Ukraine, the United States, NATO, and the European Union. Ukraine seems willing to reach an agreement. However, Russia has turned down any proposals, and the Kremlin is looking determined to continue the war unless it receives exactly what it wants.
Thus, it is increasingly likely that the conflict will continue until either Ukraine capitulates or Russia suffers significant setbacks on the battlefield to reconsider its inflexible position.
About the Author: Stavros Atlamazoglou
Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations and a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ). He holds a BA from the Johns Hopkins University and an MA from the Johns Hopkins’ School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.
Image: Shutterstock / Pavlovska Yevheniia.
