Every month since September, the Russian forces have averaged over 5,000 suicide drones launched per 30 days.
Russia continues to launch thousands of suicide drones against Ukraine as part of its deep strike campaign that is aimed at bringing Ukraine to the negotiation table under Moscow’s terms.
5,000 Suicide Drones a Month
“Russia is continuing its concerted deep strike campaign against Ukrainian energy critical national infrastructure (CNI), almost certainly seeking to cause a humanitarian crisis amongst Ukraine’s civilian population over winter,” the British Ministry of Defence assessed in its latest intelligence estimate on the war in Ukraine.
This is not a new play by the Russian military. Indeed, every winter since 2022, the Russian armed forces have made a specific effort to target and destroy Ukraine’s energy grid and critical infrastructure as a way to put additional pressure on the Ukrainian government to capitulate. Thus far, Moscow’s deep strike campaign has failed. Although many Ukrainians have had to forgo basic goods, including heat, water, and internet during the cold months of the Ukrainian winter, the country has managed to band together and overcome Russia’s targeted attacks.
Last month, the Russian military launched approximately 5,400 suicide drones against Ukraine’s energy grid and critical national infrastructure. But Moscow has been pairing its one-way attack unmanned aerial systems with ballistic and cruise missiles to saturate the Ukrainian air defenses and allow as many munitions as possible to get through. To further that strategy, the Russian military launched 90 ballistic and cruise missiles from its Long Range Aviation bomber fleet. November was not exceptional in the amount of munitions launched against Ukraine. Indeed, every month since September, the Russian forces have averaged over 5,000 suicide drones launched per 30 days. That amounts to over 15,000 one-way unmanned aerial systems fired against Ukraine in just three months. And if Russia maintains this pace next year, it will be on track to launch 60,000 suicide drones.
The Ebb and Flow of Russia’s Suicide Drone Strategy
Russia’s deep strike campaign is massive but also cheap. The Russian military uses relatively cheap suicide drones to hit its targets in Ukraine. For example, a Shahed type drone costs around $35,000, and it is much cheaper than the air defence interceptor munitions used to shoot it down.
“Daily reliance on large numbers of cheap, mass-produced UAS [unmanned aerial systems], both armed and decoy, is indicative of Russia’s attritional approach to the conflict, and affords Ukraine minimal respite,” the British Ministry of Defence added.
Moreover, Russia’s missile and drone campaign against Ukraine ebbs and flows according to the current geopolitical situation. For instance, during periods when Moscow seeks to gain some diplomatic goodwill, suicide drone launches decrease. And when the Kremlin seeks to maximize pressure on Ukraine, the United States, or NATO, drone and missile launches increase.
“Launched rates are regularly limited by adverse weather conditions and geopolitical considerations; however, lulls are often followed by peaks as perceived conditions improve,” the British Ministry of Defence concluded in its intelligence analysis.
The war in Ukraine has turned the suicide drone into a mainstay weapon for every military. And the Russian military is showing its destructive potential.
About the Author: Stavros Atlamazoglou
Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations and a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ). He holds a BA from the Johns Hopkins University and an MA from the Johns Hopkins’ School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.
Image: Shutterstock.com / Anelo
