A survey of likely Republican primary voters in Texas shows U.S. Sen. John Cornyn trailing both of his major challengers ahead of the 2026 GOP Senate primary, with the longtime incumbent now polling in third place.
Conducted by Stratus Intelligence on November 21–22, the poll was disclosed by journalist Ben Jacobs, who linked it to a super PAC backing Wesley Hunt. According to the poll of 857 likely Republican primary voters, Attorney General Ken Paxton leads the three-way race with 36 percent support. U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt follows with 26 percent, while Cornyn stands at 25 percent. Fourteen percent of respondents remain undecided. The survey carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.
Cornyn’s unfavorable ratings have risen sharply. His current favorability is 35 percent, with 51 percent of respondents viewing him unfavorably. Among those, 28 percent said their opinion of Cornyn is “very unfavorable.” Despite spending over $40 million in advertising and campaign efforts this year, the memo accompanying the poll notes that Cornyn’s standing has not improved.
Head-to-head matchups further highlight the current senator’s vulnerability. Paxton leads Cornyn by 17 points (51 percent to 34 percent), while Hunt leads Cornyn by 23 points (52 percent to 29 percent). Even when factoring in a hypothetical endorsement from President Donald Trump, Cornyn trails Paxton 44 percent to 41 percent. A Trump endorsement for Hunt shifts the lead further, putting Hunt ahead of Paxton 51 percent to 31 percent.
The results come amid continued criticism of Cornyn’s Senate record and perceived departures from conservative priorities. Gun rights advocates, including Texas Gun Rights President Chris McNutt, have opposed Cornyn’s role in crafting the 2022 Bipartisan Safer Communities Act, a gun control law supported by the Biden administration. In October, McNutt delivered a letter to the White House urging President Trump not to endorse Cornyn. As reported by the Texas Tribune and quoted by Breitbart News, McNutt stated, “Texas gun owners remember who wrote the blueprint for Biden’s gun control agenda, and we won’t stand idly by while the architect asks for our vote.”
Opponents have also drawn attention to Cornyn’s positions on immigration. His votes in favor of legislation expanding foreign worker visa programs and past proposals involving legal status for certain undocumented immigrants have been focal points for both Paxton and Hunt, who argue the senator’s approach amounts to amnesty. Cornyn’s team has pushed back, claiming he has consistently voted with Trump and does not support amnesty, while pointing to funding he helped secure for state-led border security efforts.
