This is not the first time Poland has had to deal with Russian military activity in its territory.
Russia continues to conduct large-scale sabotage operations against Europe, according to NATO officials.
The latest incident took place in Poland, where Russian agents allegedly blew up railway lines as part of a protracted interference campaign.
Russia’s “Phase Zero” Campaign
On Tuesday, Polish prime minister Donald Tusk stated that the Russian intelligence services recruited two Ukrainian citizens, who used explosives to damage two segments of the Lublin-Warsaw railway line near Mika and Lublin over the weekend. Tusk said that the saboteurs entered from Belarus and escaped the same way.
That is not the first time Poland has had to deal with Russian military activity in its territory. In September, 19 Russian drones violated Polish airspace and triggered a NATO response.
Polish Special Services spokesperson Jacek Dobrzynski stated that evidence indicates that it was the Russian special services that commissioned the sabotage attacks.
The chief of the Polish General Staff, Wiesław Kukula, even went a step further and similarly said on Monday that Poland is in a “pre-war situation” with Russia during which the Kremlin is preparing the operational environment for “potential aggression on Polish territory.”
“These official Polish statements cohere with ISW’s continued assessment that Russia is intensifying its ‘Phase Zero’ campaign to destabilize Europe, undermine NATO’s cohesion, and set the political, informational, and psychological conditions for a potential future Russian war against NATO,” the Institute for the Study of War assessed in a recent estimate of the war in Ukraine.
Russian fighter jets and drones also violated the airspace of Romania, Estonia, Denmark, Norway, and Germany, forcing airport closures and interrupting air traffic.
In total, there have been over 25 incidents involving Russian assets in the past couple of months.
A Russian War with NATO?
Although it is undeniable that Russia has engaged in a significant interference campaign against NATO and the European Union since the war began, it would be hard to see the Kremlin actually taking offensive action against a NATO country.
Under Article 5 of the transatlantic alliance, aggression against one member country could trigger a unified response (the United States invoked Article 5 after the September 11 terrorist attacks to support the invasion of Afghanistan). So, if Russia attacked Poland or any other NATO member state, it would be almost certain that the whole transatlantic alliance would respond, including the US military. Russia cannot defeat NATO in a conventional conflict. It has been struggling to defeat the Ukrainian military for almost four years. It would not stand a chance against the combined power of NATO.
There is, however, the nuclear aspect of a potential conflict between Russia and NATO. Moscow maintains the largest nuclear arsenal in the world, with triad capabilities that ensure a second-strike option. Even if a conflict began as solely a conventional war, it could easily escalate into a nuclear confrontation if one side believed it faced an existential threat. This consideration makes an open conflict between Russia and NATO unlikely.
However, that does not prevent the Kremlin from pushing its case as far as it thinks possible in an attempt to distract NATO.
About the Author: Stavros Atlamazoglou
Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations and a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ). He holds a BA from the Johns Hopkins University and an MA from the Johns Hopkins’ School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.
Image: Shutterstock.
