Lockheed Martin is responsible for developing the Mk21A reentry vehicle for the upcoming Sentinel ICBM.
This week, the Lockheed Martin Corporation received a $453.9 million contract modification for the Mk21A nuclear weapons program. This modification raises the cumulative contract value from around $1.028 billion to around $1.5 billion. The contract is with the Air Force Nuclear Weapons Center (AFNWC) at Hill Air Force Base in Utah.
Lockheed has listed the work on its end at their King of Prussia, Penn., facility. This project is part of the overall US Air Force future ICBM system that is designed to replace the current arsenal of aging US nuclear weapons. These developments couldn’t come soon enough.
America Urgently Needs the Sentinel ICBM
After all, contrary to what many Americans might believe, America’s nuclear weapons arsenal is not doing so great. Russia’s arsenal is larger and more advanced. China’s is newer, and while it is smaller, it is rapidly catching up to the American arsenal. Meanwhile, the American nuclear weapons arsenal—primarily consisting of aging LGM-30G Minuteman missiles well past their sell-by date—is old, smaller than Russia’s, and technologically inferior. Thus, the need for Lockheed to get this contract right is all the more pressing.
The Mk21A is an integrated reentry vehicle (RV), which is the part of the intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) that survives reentry into the atmosphere and delivers the nuclear payload to its target. The Mk21A is being developed to carry the W87-1 warhead in the forthcoming LGM-35A Sentinel ICBM system.
This program falls under the modernization of the land-based leg of the American nuclear triad. It is replacing the much older Minuteman system. Using advanced digital engineering tools, such as modeling and simulation to reduce risk, enhance development, and contain costs, the US military is putting much hope in the Mk21A’s development. And the use of those advanced engineering tools is notable.
It is an indicator that—finally—the Pentagon recognizes the real risk that its chronic overrunning of the defense budget for these programs, as well as the consistent under-delivery of these expensive systems, is becoming a threat in itself.
While digital engineering is meant to help keep costs down, such programs have a history of cost growth, too. Overruns could force tradeoffs elsewhere. The Mk21A is one piece; the Sentinel ICBM, along with the W87-1 nuclear warhead, and the underlying infrastructure for launching these systems, must all come together. If one part lags either due to technical complications or bureaucratic inertia—petty politics—the whole force leg is negatively impacted.
America Has Deferred Nuclear Upgrades for Too Long
Until this new system is fully fielded, the US must maintain the legacy Minuteman force—which raises issues of readiness, reliability, and cost. But by upgrading its strategic nuclear forces, the Americans might be sending signals of continued deterrence capacity—all of which could factor into the calculations of an adversary.
Already, there have been timeline and budgetary pressures placed upon this important program.
Extending to 2032, work completion indicates that this is a long-haul program (and the missile system it goes into may be even later). Nevertheless, the Trump administration is correct to seek to correct the grave imbalance between America’s nuclear weapons arsenal and those of its great state rivals—notably Russia and, soon, China.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert is a senior national security editor at The National Interest. Recently, Weichert became the host of The National Security Hour on America Outloud News and iHeartRadio, where he discusses national security policy every Wednesday at 8pm Eastern. Weichert hosts a companion book talk series on Rumble entitled “National Security Talk.” He is also a contributor at Popular Mechanics and has consulted regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including The Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, and the Asia Times. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
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