A successful future Ukrainian counteroffensive would need both the necessary means and the element of surprise.
In less than four months, the war in Ukraine will reach its fourth anniversary. Both sides have taken nearly 2 million casualties in a fight that does not seem to have an end in sight. For another November, the Russian forces are pushing hard to make gains in the Donbas and eastern Ukraine at a very high cost. The Ukrainian military is putting up a fierce resistance while slowly retreating.
Under these conditions, can Ukraine win the war? Yes, but it would need the necessary means and time to change the balance of power on the battlefield and force the Kremlin to the negotiation table.
Ukraine Strikes Back
To win the war or achieve a favorable settlement, Ukraine needs to go on the counterattack and liberate most, if not all, of its territory currently occupied by the Russian military.
To begin with, the Ukrainian military has proven that it can plan and successfully execute large-scale counteroffensive operations. In the fall of 2022, the Ukrainian forces caught the Russians by surprise, liberating hundreds of square miles of territory in eastern and southern Ukraine in just a few days.
However, not all Ukrainian counteroffensives have been successful. A year later, in the summer of 2023, the Ukrainian military launched its much-anticipated counteroffensive in southern Ukraine. The goal was to reach and enter Crimea. Due to a combination of reasons, such as a delay in supplying Kyiv with the necessary weapon systems, including sufficient numbers of main battle tanks and infantry fighting vehicles, as well as the Ukrainians facing the most comprehensive defensive works since World War II, the counteroffensive failed.
Then, in the summer of 2024, the Ukrainians launched a foray into Russia’s Kursk Oblast. Once more, they were able to catch the Russian military by surprise and create a foothold inside Russia. The foray in Kursk forced the Russian military to dedicate tens of thousands of troops and even involve North Korean forces.
However, Ukraine is suffering from manpower shortages. Although Kyiv has suffered fewer casualties than Moscow (approximately 450,000 versus nearly 1.2 million), the war has taken its toll on Ukraine’s manpower reserves. For an effective counteroffensive, the Ukrainian military would need to amass and train sufficient forces while at the same time repelling Russia’s attacks. That is easier said than done. And it could prove to be the sticking point that prevents Kyiv from liberating its territories.
A Future Ukrainian Counteroffensive
Thus, the Ukrainians have shown that they can conduct maneuver warfare and achieve big victories. But they have also shown their limitations when faced with an entrenched enemy who enjoys fire superiority. As a result, a successful future Ukrainian counteroffensive would need both the necessary means (men, main battle tanks, artillery ammunition, infantry fighting vehicles, and other assets) and the element of surprise. Moreover, a successful Ukrainian counteroffensive would likely need something extra that would change the balance on the battlefield. That something could be sufficient air assets to establish temporary air superiority over the battlefield or a large supply of Tomahawk cruise missiles to destroy Russian units, command and control functions, and logistics lines.
The Ukrainians have shown a determination to win this war. But they also need to create the necessary conditions for a counteroffensive that would either liberate all of occupied Ukraine or be enough to bring Moscow to the negotiating table.
About the Author: Stavros Atlamazoglou
Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations and a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ). He holds a BA from the Johns Hopkins University and an MA from the Johns Hopkins’ School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.
Image: Drop of Light / Shutterstock.com
