The Russian forces have been trying to capture Pokrovsk for over a year now.
Russian president Vladimir Putin wants a key Ukrainian town seized by the middle of November.
However, it is unlikely that the Russian forces will capture Pokrovsk in the next fortnight.
Capturing Pokrovsk
Putin has reportedly demanded that Pokrovsk, a key Ukrainian town in the Donbas, be seized by the middle of November.
Although the Russian forces have made progress in the area around Pokrovsk, they are not as close to capturing the fortified Ukrainian town. Russian units have been advancing to the north and east of the town, but they have not managed to establish a firm foothold inside the fortified town. They have not encircled the town, either.
“Russian forces almost certainly do not currently control any positions within the city of Pokrovsk itself,” the Institute for the Study of War assessed in its latest operational update on the conflict.
The Russian forces maintain artillery and drone superiority in the area and are using it to defeat the Ukrainian forces. Indeed, according to Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces spokesperson Captain Hryhorii Shapoval, the Russian forces in the region of Pokrovsk currently have a 10-1 advantage in unmanned aerial systems over the Ukrainian defenders.
“Russian forces recently advanced in southeastern Myrnohrad (east of Pokrovsk), but these advances are unlikely to cause an immediate collapse of the Ukrainian pocket in the Pokrovsk direction,”the Institute for the Study of War added.
The Ukrainian military has been using a series of fortified towns as a breakwater against the Russian tide. This “fortress belt” is designed to stall the Russian advance and exact a very heavy price from the Russian military, paramilitary units, and pro-Russian separatist forces. Some of these fortified towns include Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka, Kostyantynivka, and Pokrovsk. The Russian forces have made varying degrees of progress against each urban center but have failed to capture them. And it will likely be some time before they do.
“ISW continues to assess that seizing Ukraine’s fortress belt will be a multi-year-long effort for Russian forces,” the Institute for the Study of War added.
Putin and Unrealistic Deadlines
It would not be the first time that the Russian forces missed a deadline imposed by the Kremlin. For example, back in 2022, Putin had demanded that the Russian military seize the Ukrainian Donetsk and Luhansk provinces by September of that year. Not only did the Russian forces not meet that deadline, but they also lost significant parts of the territory they had captured when the Ukrainian military launched a highly successful counteroffensive that liberated hundreds of square miles of territory in just a few days.
The Russian forces have been trying to capture Pokrovsk for over a year now. And despite their manpower and firepower superiority, they have failed to seize the key Ukrainian town.
“Putin regularly tasks the Russian General Staff with seizing operationally significant swaths of land within unrealistic timeframes, and the timeframe within which Putin aims to seize Pokrovsk is not a realistic reflection of Russian forces’ ability to seize the town,” the Institute for the Study of War added.
Pokrovsk remains in Ukrainian hands. Russian commanders are now under pressure to capture it within a fortnight. Judging from the past, they will likely fail at the cost of tens of thousands of casualties.
About the Author: Stavros Atlamazoglou
Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations and a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ). He holds a BA from the Johns Hopkins University and an MA from the Johns Hopkins’ School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.
Image: Shutterstock.
