Bulgaria is shifting from Russian energy dependence to US partnerships, embracing nuclear collaboration and American “energy dominance” as it redefines its regional energy future.
Bulgarian energy discussions have focused in the past on Russian gas, diverse pipelines, the Russian energy company Lukoil, and Soviet-era nuclear power plants. However, this is all about to change.
The energy industry in Bulgaria has recently gained significant global attention. This trend is now emerging as both a central theme in national security and an opportunity for US firms to bridge technology gaps in Bulgaria, while increasing export and investment opportunities for American industry and finance.
Energy serves as a primary input for all economic activities, and its importance has been further amplified in geopolitical terms following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. President Trump’s National Energy Dominance Council has a clear mandate to reinforce the importance of stable baseload energy, utilizing resources and technological prowess available within the United States. Previously, American energy referred primarily to the utilization of American minerals, such as crude oil, natural gas, and coal. Under President Joe Biden, his “Green New Deal” with solar and wind power was on the ascendant. That has now all changed.
The Trump administration’s energy policy has thoroughly discarded the Biden-era focus on “renewables” such as solar and wind power, while a broader portfolio of American energy that also covers advanced and small modular nuclear power units, as well as advanced geothermal, will accelerate in the years ahead.
In this context, the theme of American energy dominance in eastern and central Europe has both practical and symbolic implications. Bulgaria has shown readiness, and potentially the political will, to adopt cutting-edge American energy solutions and systems that can propel Bulgaria into a leading position as an energy supplier for the region and beyond.
Bulgaria’s Energy Transition and Policy
Bulgaria’s energy policy has gone through several phases since joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in 2002 and the European Union (EU) in 2007. Presently, almost 70 percent of Bulgaria’s electricity comes from nuclear and coal power plants, with only about six percent coming from intermittent sources such as solar and wind. The remaining 17 percent is from a combination of hydropower plants and gas turbines. Bulgaria is expected to phase out its coal power plants by 2040 as part of the European Union’s Green Deal, which is an unwitting vector of its energy policies. Nuclear energy has been a reliable source of clean power generation in the country for decades, despite the closing of a few Soviet-era reactors as part of the EU mandate over the last decade. Presently, the two remaining nuclear reactors at the Kozloduy nuclear power plant in northern Bulgaria generate about 35 percent of the nation’s electricity.
Nuclear Collaboration and Strategic Shifts
Bulgaria’s nuclear energy history is closely tied to Russia, dating back to 1966 with an agreement to build the commercial units of its current generation of pressurized water reactors. Today, Bulgaria is the largest exporter of electricity in Southeast Europe. Previously, during the communist period before 1989, Bulgaria was the largest producer of electricity with nuclear power, just behind East Germany and the Union of the Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR). In April 2024, Bulgarian suppliers signed a memorandum of understanding with the US nuclear company Westinghouse Electric. This agreement outlines the construction of two large AP1000 reactors at Kozloduy and the procurement of fuel for both existing units and future expansion. The deal serves as a counter to Russian strategies that offer reactor-plus-fuel packages in Central and Eastern Europe, signaling Bulgaria’s adoption of the American energy dominance theme.
While Bulgaria is embracing American energy systems, energy diversity remains a key consideration for its policy. Diversifying the scale of power generation is a rational approach as the country transitions away from coal-fired plants. With Bulgaria’s established history in nuclear power and available reactor sites, small modular reactors (SMRs), once commercially available, are poised to play an important role in the nation’s future energy mix. In the United States, the Trump administration has issued an executive order to commercialize SMRs, targeting their availability by 2030. These reactors, each generating less than 300 megawatts (MW), can support diversification and decentralization, and facilitate Bulgaria’s compliance with the EU’s clean energy mandates.
American Energy in the Balkans
American energy independence is a relatively recent achievement, considering the typical ten-year energy cycles. Since 2019, the United States has produced surplus energy, shifting from independence during Trump’s first term to a theme of energy dominance in the second. American energy sources now include natural gas, nuclear, renewables, and a diminishing share of coal. While President Trump’s clean energy objectives differ from those of the European Union in theory, there is substantial practical alignment, particularly in supporting clean baseload energy systems beyond renewables. Although American nuclear energy expertise and fuel development capabilities have declined in favor of Russian state-owned enterprises over recent decades, Bulgaria’s collaboration with US nuclear firms is expected to strengthen US influence in the Balkans and may offer a model for other Central and Eastern European nations.
Bulgaria is poised to introduce American energy interests into the Balkans, opening new avenues for US companies in a region traditionally dominated by Russian energy. Central and Eastern Europe appear to present more accessible opportunities for countering Russian influence compared to Asia.
With help from American energy and technology partners, Bulgaria has the potential to develop into a diverse, domestic energy supplier, becoming not only energy sovereign but also energy dominant. The Trump administration will be the backstop for this new sovereign energy approach that will ensure Bulgarian energy dominance. Bulgaria may need to open up its own National Energy Dominance Council (NEDC) in Sofia soon.
About the authors: Rashmi Singh and Philip H. Bay
Rashmi Singh is Chief Lending Officer at a San Francisco commercial bank, with experience in financing tech firms and real estate nationwide. She holds an MIT certificate in Clean Energy Systems and a Master’s in Energy Law and Environmental Policies from Texas A&M University.
Philip H. Bay is CEO and Founder of Washington Global Advisors, LLC, based in Washington, DC. Educated in Denmark, France, and Yugoslavia, he is based in Washington, DC, and is a lobbyist and political consultant who has worked overseas for 35 years in Europe and Asia. Bay specializes in security, food supply chain resilience, and foreign policy issues.
Image: Aritra Deb/shutterstock
