Despite the noticeable decrease in progress, the Russian forces took heavy losses in September.
Russian progress in Ukraine is slowing down after the Russian military decided to reshuffle multiple units along the frontline.
Unit Reshuffling Leads to Slowdown
Russian ground progress almost halved in September.
In its latest intelligence estimate on the conflict, the British Ministry of Defence assessed that “it is likely that Russian Ground Forces (RGF) seized approximately 250 sq km [96.5 sq miles] of Ukrainian territory in September 2025, a notable decrease from the approximately 465 sq km [179.5] taken in August 2025.”
But there is a wider trend at play here, as Russian ground progress from June to August saw moderate month-on-month decreases. The September slowdown is likely due to a unit reshuffling across the contact line.
“The notable decrease in ground taken from August 2025 to September 2025 is highly likely due to the RGF focus on relocating multiple Russian divisions along the front line, notably Airborne (VDV) divisions, from Sumy oblast to Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts,” the British Ministry of Defence added.
At some point, Russian president Vladimir Putin expressed a desire to create a buffer zone between Russia and Ukraine in the Sumy province, in order to prevent a similar foray into Russia like the one in the Kursk Oblast. However, the reshuffling of troops to the Donbas and southern Ukraine suggests that the Kremlin has deprioritized the buffer zone or that it does not have enough troops to pursue both goals at the same time.
Alongside naval infantry units, VDV formations are the best the Russian military has when it comes to ground troops—besides special operations units. The intense fighting in Ukraine, however, has taken a toll on the manning and readiness of these units.
The relocated units will almost certainly aid Russian offensive efforts against the Ukrainian fortified cities of Kupiansk and Pokrovsk. In Kupiansk, a key logistics hub in eastern Ukraine, fighting is taking place within the city. In Pokrovsk, the Russian forces are trying to surround the city.
“RGF are continuing intensive efforts to envelop Pokrovsk, Donetsk oblast, the key Ukrainian logistics hub which supports operations in the Donbas. Pokrovsk likely remains Russia’s priority axis, with the largest proportion of Russian assaults relative to the rest of the frontline,” the British Ministry of Defence concluded in its intelligence assessment.
Overall, however, the Russian summer offensive has failed to achieve any significant territorial gains, even at the cost of hundreds of thousands of troops killed or wounded.
Heavy Casualties
Despite the noticeable decrease in progress, the Russian forces took heavy losses in September. In 30 days of fighting, the Russian forces lost approximately 28,420 troops killed and wounded. That amounts to a daily average casualty rate of around 947 troops. Although not as high as some other months, where the daily average casualty rate reached as high as 1,500 troops, the number of losses is still significant; indeed, it is the equivalent of a US Army battalion being lost every single day.
The Russian forces continue to take heavy losses thus far in October. As of October 17, the Russian military, paramilitary units, and pro-Russian separatist forces have lost approximately 16,550 troops killed and wounded. That amounts to an average daily loss of around 973 troops.
Overall, the Russian forces have lost approximately 1,128,000 troops killed and wounded in the fighting, according to data shared by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense.
About the Author: Stavros Atlamazoglou
Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations and a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ). He holds a BA from the Johns Hopkins University and an MA from the Johns Hopkins’ School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.
Image: TashaSinchuk / Shutterstock.com
