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Putin Is Panicking: US Tomahawk Missiles Could Change the Ukraine War

The Tomahawk would greatly extend the Ukrainian military’s range and destructive capabilities.

Ukraine wants Tomahawk cruise missiles, and the United States is considering Kyiv’s request for the powerful weapon system. Russia, however, is pulling out all stops to prevent Tomahawks from entering the Ukrainian arsenal, as they could change the course of the war in favor of Ukraine.

Tomahawks for Ukraine

With Ukraine back in the Trump administration’s good graces, there is the potential that the embattled country will receive Tomahawk cruise missiles. Russia is trying its hardest to prevent that from happening.

“Russian President Vladimir Putin continues attempts to deter the US from sending Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine by linking improvements in the US-Russian bilateral relationship to concessions from the United States on the war in Ukraine,” the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assessed in its latest estimate. 

Putin said that a potential transfer of Tomahawks to Ukraine would damage US-Russian relations and the “emerging positive trend” between the two administrations. In a first since the Kremlin launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Trump invited Putin to the United States in August. Despite expectations that the meeting would lead to a negotiated peace, nothing came out of the high-level summit. 

“The Kremlin is trying to prevent the United States from providing Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine in order to retain the sanctuary that Russia enjoys in its rear,” the ISW added.

The BGM-109 Tomahawk Land Attack Missile (TLAM) is an air- or sea-launched cruise missile. It flies at 550 miles per hour and remains close to the ground (100 to 150 feet) to avoid detection. The munition can take different warheads, including a single 1,000 lbs warhead and a submunition warhead packed with cluster bombs.

The Tomahawk would greatly extend the range and destructive capabilities of the Ukrainian military and could stop Russian advances.

According to the ISW, there are “at least 1,945 Russian military objects within range” of the extended-range Tomahawk version and at least “1,655 within range” of the standard version. Thus, there are more than 3,600 targets available for a Ukrainian military armed with Tomahawks. Of course, it would be unrealistic to expect the United States and NATO to send Ukraine 3,600 Tomahawk missiles, but even a fraction of that number could make a difference.

The extended version of the cruise missile has an unclassified range of just over 1,200 miles, while the standard version can hit targets approximately 1,030 miles away. 

The most recent example of the Tomahawk missile’s destructive capability in active operations is from June, when a US Navy guided missile submarine fired dozens of Tomahawks against an Iranian nuclear facility as part of Operation Midnight Hammer. While B-2 Spirit stealth bombers were dropping GBU-57 MOP 30,000-pound bunker buster bombs against two nuclear facilities, the USS Georgia submarine was leveling a third one with Tomahawks launched from hundreds of miles away.

Russian Weakness

The Russian military has generally struggled to defend against Ukrainian long-range fires. For example, the introduction of the M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) to the Ukrainian arsenal in the summer of 2022 found the Russian forces unable to protect against it, forcing them to withdraw many high-value targets beyond the M142 HIMARS’s range.

Through the use of suicide drones, the Ukrainian forces have achieved major wins, including the destruction of several Russian strategic bombers throughout Russia. Although the Ukrainian military has the ability to strike deep behind enemy lines with suicide drones, these unmanned aerial systems do not have the destructive capability to achieve the types of results that could change the course of the conflict, particularly on a repeated basis. The Tomahawk, however, does have that capability.

About the Author: Stavros Atlamazoglou    

Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations and a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ). He holds a BA from the Johns Hopkins University and an MA from the Johns Hopkins’ School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). His work has been featured in Business InsiderSandboxx, and SOFREP.   

Image: DVIDS.

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