In addition to its other capabilities, the J-20 will almost certainly enjoy the equivalent of a “home field advantage” in any future conflict with the United States.
Most Americans, especially at the Pentagon, dislike the notion that there is a force out there that could believably challenge US military dominance—especially considering that the US is on track to pay a whopping $1 trillion for its national defense in the coming year. America’s adversaries, most notably the People’s Republic of China, pay merely a fraction of what US taxpayers do. But for pennies on the dollar, China’s military has fashioned itself into a real regional counterweight to US military power projection in the Indo-Pacific, notably in the First Island Chain stretching from Kamchatka through Japan and Taiwan down to the Philippines.
While US fighters like the F-22 Raptor and the F-35 Lightning II are often assessed as superior in stealth and in sensing technology by American analysts, Chinese simulations and independent evaluations highlight scenarios where China’s top-of-the-line fifth-generation air superiority warplane, the Chengdu J-20 “Mighty Dragon,” might tip the scales.
How? For one possibility, the J-20 could leverage “loyal wingman” drones to overwhelm US fighters in coordinated attacks. Between China’s manufacturing superiority over the Americans and that country’s competitive high-tech sector—tied hand-in-glove to the People’s Liberation Army—the J-20s might have real advantages over their F-22 or F-35 rivals. In Chinese digital simulations, a single J-20 paired with two-to-three GJ-11 stealth drones achieves early detection using the drones’ sensors, while one drone acts a decoy to draw fire from an opposing F-22—allowing for the J-20 to launch a fatal strike from beyond-visual-range (BVR). Chinese analysts assess that such a scenario gives the J-20 a more than 95 percent win rate, even when the J-20’s specs are set lower than the F-22’s in their simulations.
The J-20 Mighty Dragon’s Specifications
- Year Introduced: 2017
- Number Built: 300+
- Length: 21.2 m (69 ft 7 in)
- Wingspan: 13 m (42 ft 8 in)
- Weight: 37,000 kg (81,571 lb) MTOW
- Engines: Two Shenyang WS-10C afterburning turbofan (~32,000 lbf with afterburner)
- Top Speed: Mach 2.0 (1,320 mph, 2,130 km/h) at altitude
- Range: 2,000 km (1,200 mi) combat radius
- Service Ceiling: 20,000 m (66,000 ft)
- Loadout: Eight hardpoints (Internal and external); 11,000 kg (24,000) total payload capacity
- Aircrew: 1
How the “Loyal Wingman” System Works
With the unveiling of the twin-seat J-20S variant at last year’s Zhuhai Airshow, this plane enhances the ability of the J-20 to take on an F-22 or an F-35 in combat. The J-20S has a pilot to fly the plane itself, and a co-pilot to perform drone coordination and data processing, turning the J-20S into a command node—a mothership, in effect—for multi-directional attacks that would simply outnumber and swarm any picket of F-22s or F-35s.
Without drones, the J-20’s win probability drops sharply. But in a full battle, China’s emphasis on unmanned systems could flip one-on-one engagements into asymmetric swarms.
What’s more, China is highly competitive in the area of artificial intelligence (AI) creation. They are leveraging this competitiveness for military purposes as well as financial gain. AI integration further boosts China’s ability to challenge US airpower in a future fight. AI would aid electronic warfare, target prioritization, and autonomous drone operations to saturate US defenses.
Armed with long-range air-to-air missiles like the PL-15 or the emerging PL-21, the J-20 could engage US fighters beyond the reach of US Air Force’s AIM-120 AMRAAM. Its larger radome houses a potentially more powerful AESA radar for detecting targets farther out, combined with infrared search-and-track (IRST) and electro-optical targeting systems akin to the F-35’s, enabling passive detection without revealing its position.
The real kicker, however, is the sheer number of J-20s that the Chinese have produced. Right now, there are 300 airframes, outnumbering the 180 operational F-22s, with many of those assets dispersed compared to the concentrations of the J-20s. And unlike the F-22, whose production line shuttered more than a decade ago, new J-20s are still on their way.
During a regional conflict over Taiwan or the South China Sea, China’s proximity to the battlefield allows rapid sorties from numerous hardened bases while the US forces rely upon vulnerable distant bases (such as Guam and Japan) prone to Chinese missile strikes.
Therefore, the J-20 enjoys the equivalent of a “home field advantage.” One report indicates that requirements for the US military to achieve air superiority over the Chinese in any contingency are so significant that it would be almost impossible given the finite number of US warplanes that would be available during such a scenario.
A2/AD Systems Further Enhance China’s Aerial Edge
Plus, there’s the anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) defenses that the J-20s will operate under the protection of. What’s more, the Chinese will subject American warplanes to massive electronic interference. Counterspace attacks will likely at least temporarily disrupt the connectivity of US forces in the Indo-Pacific, as will sustained cyberattacks and whatever disruptions to the electromagnetic (EM) spectrum Chinese forces plan for when engaging the US military.
Of course, there are plenty of scenarios that could play out and the Americans, on paper, have many advantages in a conventional fight. But it is highly unlikely that any engagement with China will be in a totally conventional, fair manner. Instead, China will seek to stunt whatever inherent advantages US warplanes, like the F-22 and F-35 possess, as a means to give their forces a fighting chance. And the Chinese just might succeed.
If the Chinese succeed in tipping the balance of any potential military engagement against the Americans decisively in their favor, the United States will be defeated—and that will have real reverberations globally for generations to come.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert is a senior national security editor at The National Interest. Recently, Weichert became the host of The National Security Hour on America Outloud News and iHeartRadio, where he discusses national security policy every Wednesday at 8pm Eastern. He is also a contributor at Popular Mechanics and has consulted regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including The Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, The Asia Times, and others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
Image: Shutterstock / HARITH SAQEEF.
