Brexit champion Nigel Farage is on pace to become British prime minister, according to the latest seat-by-seat mega poll conducted by YouGov.
If an election were held tomorrow, Nigel Farage’s Reform UK would dominate the field and put him in pole position to become prime minister, with the YouGov MRP polling projection predicting that the populist party would likely win 311 seats out of 650 in the House of Commons, Sky News reported.
The Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification method, which combines polling with census and other data to predict outcomes of individual constituency races, surveyed over 13,000 people across the country. While there is a significant level of potential error, the relatively new format of polling is seen as giving the closest snapshot of how a parliamentary election would break.
The YouGov mega poll found that on the low end, Reform UK would pick up as few as 271 seats or as many as 342, compared to its current level of five MPs. To win an outright majority in the Commons, parties currently need to win 326 seats. However, even in the case of a hung parliament in which no party has a majority, the top party can either form a coalition or govern from a minority position with the confidence of another party or parties.
Compared to Reform, the governing Labour Party appears to be in a much weaker position, with the MRP poll projecting the left-wing party to be on course to retain as few as 118 or as many as 185 out of its current level of 401 seats. This would potentially represent one of the most significant defeats in party history and put them on course for their lowest representation since 1931.
Meanwhile, the once-dominant Conservative Party, arguably the most successful political party in world history, electorally speaking, is projected to come in fourth place, with between 28 and 68 seats. Coming on top of its historic collapse last year, should the projections hold, it would be the worst result in party history, including dating back to the beginning of its predecessor, the Tory Party, in the 1670s.
Potentially leapfrogging the Conservatives in terms of constituencies won, the Liberal Democrats are on pace to win between 65 and 86 seats, according to the survey. In terms of vote percentage, the poll predicted that Reform would win 27 per cent, Labour 21 per cent, Conservatives 17 per cent, Lib Dems 15 per cent, and the Greens 11 per cent. Other polls, including those from YouGov, have placed Farage’s party even higher, with many predicting the party will surpass 30 per cent.
While some have branded the Farage party as “far-right”, the YouGov MRP survey predicted that three in four Reform seats would be pick-ups from Labour constituencies and over half of Labour MPs would fall to Reform. Reform has made it central to its strategy to court disaffected working-class voters in traditional Labour heartlands, many of whom backed Brexit and see immigration as a top issue.
Should the projections hold, Reform would be on pace for the most significant increase in the number of seats controlled by any party in any election cycle in British history. It would also see many political heavyweights lose their seats, including Labour cabinet ministers such as Bridget Phillipson, Ed Miliband, Lisa Nandy, Wes Streeting, and Yvette Cooper. On the Conservative side, leading MPs James Cleverly, Priti Patel, and Robert Jenrick are among those projected to lose their seats.
Commenting on the survey, Mr Farage said: “This new poll will spread panic amongst Labour and Tory MPs as they head to their party conferences.”
