Every major strategic objective of the United States in the Middle East is now at risk because of Israel’s short-sighted attack in Doha.
Israel has struck senior Hamas leaders who were in Doha, Qatar. Jerusalem justifies its actions against these Hamas leaders by claiming that Hamas, an Islamist group that rules over the Gaza Strip with an iron fist, is dedicated to Israel’s destruction.
Qatari leaders understandably view the Israeli attack as an infringement on their sovereignty—something that Qatar’s rulers guard jealously, given their country’s history of having their sovereignty infringed upon by their larger neighbors.
More broadly, the Israeli strikes have been the geopolitical equivalent of an earthquake in the region. The attack has triggered the Arab states of the region to fundamentally reassess their commitment to the US-led Mideast order which places Israel in the driver’s seat of regional geopolitics.
The Abraham Accords Are Falling Apart
The Trump administration in its first term had placed its faith in the diplomatic and economic route being the key to resolving outstanding instabilities in the region. The Abraham Accords were a way to unite Arab and Israeli power—first by economics, then, over time, in mutual security assistance.
United in their concern over the rising power of Iran’s Shiite theocracy, the Israelis and Arabs would strive to contain and deter Iranian power while allowing for the United States to return to its traditional role in the region as an offshore balancer.
However, between Donald Trump’s controversial reelection loss to Joe Biden in 2020, the Biden administration’s foreign policy, the October 7 attacks, and the recent 12-Day War between Israel and Iran, a day of reckoning has been coming to the region in force.
All that was put on hold in the early days of the second Trump administration as the Arab states attempted to make nice with Trump while keeping things with Israel on an even keel. But the Israeli strikes against Qatar fundamentally change the calculus of many of the region’s power players.
The Arab States Are Shifting Away from Israel
If Israel will strike Qatar so flippantly because some Hamas members were holed up there, this means that all the other Arab states are at risk of being attacked at any time. At a time when the Arab world is turning decisively against Israel for perceived injustices directed against the Palestinian Arab populations of Gaza and, to a lesser extent, the West Bank, the governments of the Arab lands cannot be seen as too friendly with the Jewish democracy of Israel.
Even the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, a government that is outwardly ambivalent toward Israel but secretly quite helpful, is now taking the drastic step of putting true distance between itself, the Israeli government, and by extension the United States.
Nor has the Israeli government taken the hint. Instead, it has pivoted and threatened to strike suspected Hamas leaders hiding out in Cairo, Egypt and Ankara, Turkey. In response to the Israeli threats, Egypt’s government met with other Arab states to discuss the creation of an Arab rapid reaction military force. It’s a sort of NATO of the Middle East—except it doesn’t target Iran, as Jerusalem and Washington hoped it would, but rather Israel itself.
And it’s being suggested by Egypt—the first Arab state to make peace with Israel, and one of the Jewish state’s most vital security partners for decades—because of the threats to its sovereignty.
Islamist Turkey, meanwhile, has cut off diplomatic ties with Israel in the wake of its threats toward Ankara. This has prompted the United States government and Europe to intervene diplomatically, seeing as any Qatar-esque attack by Israel on Turkey would technically risk an NATO Article V declaration by Ankara.
A recent Wall Street Journal article states emphatically that senior Saudi government officials no longer believe they can rely upon US security guarantees and are “seeking new arrangements.”
This helps to explain Riyadh’s embrace of Egypt’s suggestion for the creation of a pan-Arab task force that would be deployed in response to any future provocation by Israel.
What’s more, it has been reported that the Saudi government has finalized a new security agreement with nuclear-armed Pakistan. This agreement is causing controversy, because another Saudi official confirmed to Reuters that the deal would extend Pakistan’s nuclear weapons umbrella over Saudi Arabia.
The Future Looks Dim for Israel—and American Regional Influence
All these moves are being made because the Mideast order is shifting away from the US-led system that was there before as well as away from the Abraham Accords that the Trump administration had hoped to leave in place to contain Iran and ensure that Israel had a seat at the table.
To be clear, what’s happening now in the Mideast is expressly because of Israel’s recent actions. Trump knows it, too. Remember, the president recently told the Wall Street Journal that Netanyahu had “f—ed” him with the surprise Israeli airstrikes on Doha.
So, for all practical purposes, the Abraham Accords are dead. The Arabs are decisively moving away from Israel, while Israel must still contend with the Iranian threat. In other words, the Israelis are setting the stage for a much more difficult geopolitical environment for their own country to survive in. None of this was necessary. All Israel had to do was moderate a bit in Gaza—but that was unlikely to ever happen.
Because of Israeli intransigence, both Israel and the United States—which are attached at the hip—risk losing their biggest partners in peace in the region to the radicals. What’s more, Saudi Arabia has already started the long process of normalizing ties with their great foe, Iran, which will likely continue to be normalized. In short, every major strategic objective of the United States in the Middle East is now at risk because of Israel’s short-sighted attack in Doha.
What happens when the Arabs and Persians and Turks all align against Israel? Nothing good. All this was avoidable. But Jerusalem simply cannot help itself…and now the consequences are coming into place.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert is a senior national security editor at The National Interest. Recently, Weichert became the host of The National Security Hour on America Outloud News and iHeartRadio, where he discusses national security policy every Wednesday at 8pm Eastern. He is also a contributor at Popular Mechanics and has consulted regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including The Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, The Asia Times, and others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
Image: Shutterstock / Brian Jason.
