The aging American nuclear missile—now more than 50 years old—must remain in service to make up for delays in the construction of the LGM-35 Sentinel, its successor.
According to a newly released Government Accountability Office (GAO) report, the United States Air Force’s transition to the Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) is facing a severe delay—which might require keeping the aging LGM-30 Minuteman III missile in service until at least 2050.
Development of the Minuteman III began in the 1960s, and it has been in service since the early 1970s, potentially giving the nuclear missile an 80-year service life.
The missile was constructed with a planned service life of 10 years, but “a series of life-extension programs have kept the Minuteman III viable as fielded until 2030, making the MMIII the oldest deployed strategic ballistic missile in the world,” the United States Air Force Nuclear Weapons Center explained when the program reached its 50th anniversary.
Prior to the report’s publication, the missile had been slated for retirement by 2036. If the report’s conclusions are accurate, it will serve at least 14 years longer than currently planned—raising concerns about its continued reliability.
“The system includes more than 600 facilities, including 450 missile silos, across five states,” the GAO noted in its report, “ICBM Modernization: Air Force Actions Needed to Expeditiously Address Critical Risks to Sentinel Transition,” published on Wednesday. The MMIII missiles, which are at least half a century old, are deployed in Wyoming, Montana, North Dakota, Colorado, and Nebraska.
The LGM-35 Sentinel ICBM Is Long Overdue—and Vastly Over Budget
The watchdog group warned that the delay with the MMIII is due to its replacement, the LGM-35 Sentinel, also known as the Ground Based Strategic Deterrent (GBSD), facing “critical cost overruns and schedule delays.”
That will require the Air Force to “operate and maintain” the MMIII, which represents the land leg of the United States nuclear triad.
The Air Force awarded Northrop Grumman a $77.7 billion contract in 2020 to produce the Sentinel. However, since that time, the program’s estimated costs have more than doubled, to approximately $160 billion. The issue was so significant that it resulted in a Nunn-McCurdy breach, a rule that prompts automatic congressional oversight for substantial budget increases.
The act was passed by Congress in 1982 to control cost growth in major defense acquisition programs (MDAPs) and sets two levels, based on the cost increase relative to the programs’ original or baseline estimate. The first is a “significant breach,” which occurs if a program’s unit cost increases by 15 percent over the current baseline or 30 percent of the original baseline. The second is a “critical breach,” which occurs when the unit cost increases by 25 percent over the current baseline or 50 percent over its original baseline.
In the case of the Sentinel program, the breach was critical and resulted in a restructuring of the program in 2024. The new restructured program saved some money, but could still cost at least $140 billion, according to Defense News, which noted that this number was “roughly 81% higher than the original cost estimate.”
The Pentagon Is Taking Nuclear Deterrence Seriously
The cost is only part of the problem. Among the biggest concerns that the GAO laid out is that the Air Force has yet to develop a “transition risk management plan,” which the watchdog said would help the service “establish an organized, methodical way to identify, assess and respond to the myriad risks,” while it could allow the Air Force to create a roadmap that will aid in a smooth transition to the Sentinel.
The Air Force hasn’t even created a schedule for the future Sentinel test facility, which the GAO noted is a “necessary early” part of the transition. It has also warned that a plan should be instituted for maintaining the aging MMIII, including addressing the fact that parts may no longer be available and no longer produced.
The GAO made six recommendations to the Air Force to address the risks, and the Pentagon has agreed with all of them. These include the creation of the aforementioned transition risk report and the development of a detailed schedule for completing the test facility, as well as an assessment of personnel needs to handle the transition to the Sentinel from MMIII. Additionally, a post-2030 MMIII operation test launch plan is being developed.
The watchdog further recommended that the Air Force address MMIII sustainment risks and consider the personnel and material implications for the program.
About the Author: Peter Suciu
Peter Suciu has contributed over 3,200 published pieces to more than four dozen magazines and websites over a 30-year career in journalism. He regularly writes about military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, politics, and international affairs. Peter is also a contributing writer for Forbes and Clearance Jobs. He is based in Michigan. You can follow him on Twitter: @PeterSuciu. You can email the author: [email protected].
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