A newly discovered missile installation indicates that North Korea has no intention of entering into good-faith arms control negotiations.
It shouldn’t surprise us that North Korea has pulled something sneaky again. The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) has been caught with a secret nuclear missile base near China. This installation was previously undiscovered and disclosed in a recent report written by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a DC-based think tank.
The Sinpung-dong Missile Operating Base contains six to nine nuclear-capable ICBMs, and their launchers are located about 17 miles from the Chinese border, according to CNN. CSIS analyzed satellite imagery, documents, and discussions with North Korean witnesses who have left the DPRK as refugees.
This once-secret base could be part of a dispersed group of 15 to 20 ballistic missile facilities. “These missiles pose a potential nuclear threat to East Asia and the continental United States,” the report said.
What Is China’s Role?
Their discovery has many repercussions for international security. First, the proximity to China is a potential problem for Beijing. It is difficult to determine if Chinese president Xi Jinping was consulted prior to the base’s construction. This could be frustrating for Xi as a nuclear exchange this close to the border with North Korea could endanger Chinese citizens.
Xi invited North Korean leader Kim Jong-un to a Chinese military parade during the first week of September that celebrated China’s World War II victory against Japan. Russia’s Vladimir Putin also attended. Xi and Kim likely discussed the presence of the missile base that is so close to China. There is a chance that China’s own overhead satellites caught the DPRK building the installation, and that Xi gave Kim his blessing to construct it. This would also be troubling since it would mean Xi is giving Kim political cover for more nuclear weapons to be built and deployed.
Washington Has Taken Its Eyes Off the Ball in Northeast Asia
It is unclear whether the United States had prior early warning about the ICBM base. The Americans are likely exasperated with all the North’s subterfuges. The DPRK is not known for being transparent about its nuclear infrastructure, and the decentralized nature of the bases is a military advantage for the North. Having numerous different missile bases around the country would create difficulty for the United States to destroy targets in a potential military “bloody nose” attack aimed at securing Kim’s acquiescence to denuclearization.
South Korea Is Foiled Again
South Korea is most alarmed by the flouting of the United Nations efforts to remove nuclear weapons from the peninsula. A network of secret bases means that the North is not concerned in the slightest about any type of diplomatic rapprochement or arms control agreements with Seoul.
Every day, Kim gets more confident about his country’s nuclear power status. He wants complete control of his warheads and the ability to deliver them to the United States at will. There seems to be no inclination to bargain away nuclear weapons in exchange for sanctions relief or other concessions.
The Donald Trump administration seems to have no definite plans for this issue. To be fair, there are pressing needs in the Middle East and Ukraine. However, Trump did say recently he would be open to meeting with Kim this year. Trump believes he has a good relationship with Kim, but has yet to make concrete efforts to engage the North Korean dictator. Moreover, South Korea cannot make any inroads either.
Kim’s sister, Kim Yo-jong, has said South Korea will never be a diplomatic partner with the North. She has a steady influence on her brother, and the pair makes for a difficult one-two punch to US and South Korean statecraft.
North Korean Nuclear Acceptance?
My own strategy of dealing with North Korea has taken a pummeling. In my latest book, I called for the cancellation of combined US-South Korean military exercises in exchange for allowing American inspections of the DPRK’s nuclear infrastructure. If this works, the United States could send home some of its rear echelon support soldiers in South Korea to show that the Trump administration is willing to make a comprehensive deal with North Korea following proper inspections.
But if North Korea has numerous secret nuclear bases around the country, giving up concessions like these to Kim is a fool’s errand.
No good options remain now. North Korea is becoming more powerful, and the United States and South Korea can only look on with dismay. China and Russia are probably smiling as Kim creates another way to aggravate the Americans and the West, who have tried and failed in every possible way to achieve denuclearization.
Indeed, we are past the point of convincing Kim to give up nuclear weapons. The international community will just have to accept the North as a nuclear power, and that is just what Kim Jong-un has worked toward his entire career.
About the Author: Dr. Brent Eastwood
Brent M Eastwood, PhD, is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: A Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare, plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for US Senator Tim Scott (R-SC) and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former US Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
Image: Alexander Khitrov / Shutterstock.com.
