Russia’s unconventional war tactics have extended beyond Ukraine in recent years to include European critical infrastructure.
Russia’s sabotage efforts across Europe have skyrocketed over the last two years. According to a new report published by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), Moscow’s use of unconventional warfare methods against Ukraine and NATO member states has become a priority and is aimed at destabilizing European governments. Targeting critical infrastructure like energy, transport, military, and even undersea assets has become Russia’s go-to war strategy. As these types of attacks are difficult to pinpoint and prevent, European nations are struggling to enact a unified response or coordinate action to deter further offenses.
In a comprehensive open-source database shared by IISS, a clear pattern depicting Moscow’s critical infrastructure targeting efforts is highlighted. As stated in the report, “The cumulative impact of Russian attacks on physical targets, on virtual targets and via informational operations has been to undermine Western resilience and divide European societies. The effect has also been to lower the threshold for future escalation and increase the risk of strategic miscalculation on both sides.” While the bulk of Russia’s barrages have targeted assets in Ukraine or are connected to European efforts to supply Kyiv, an overall uptick in this kind of sabotage across the continent is concerning. Considering Europe’s energy infrastructure and, particularly, the European Union grid assets are nearly four decades old and lack critical maintenance and enhancements, these types of attacks could be debilitating if not countered effectively in a timely manner.
Earlier this week, Moscow launched what it believed to be its second-largest barrage since invading Ukraine back in February 2022. Dozens of civilians were wounded in the hours-long attack, and many buildings and residences were damaged. Notably, of the 13 locations that Russia targeted in this barrage, energy facilities were hit. According to Kyiv’s national grid operator, these strikes caused widespread power cuts. Last November, another power grid assault resulted in more than 700,000 homes and businesses losing power amidst freezing temperatures.
Moscow’s unconventional war tactics have extended beyond Ukraine over the last few years. Particularly, Russia’s sabotage of undersea cables has sparked concern across the hemisphere since 2022. Critical undersea communications infrastructure serves as the backbone for digital communication and trade throughout the globe and plays a key role in modern society. In fact, more than $10 trillion in daily worldwide financial transactions is facilitated by such cables, making this kind of sabotage disruptive to the global economy. Baltic Sea sabotage continues to skyrocket. Telecom, gas, and power links connecting European countries like Finland, Sweden, Latvia, Germany, and Estonia are being targeted. While Russia is strongly believed to be behind these barrages, authorities have failed to conclusively find evidence proving its sabotage efforts.
Cross-border attacks targeting critical infrastructure above ground have also skyrocketed. In July, three men were convicted by a British court for setting fire to a London warehouse connected to Ukraine-bound military equipment. According to prosecutors in this case, operatives linked to the Russian mercenary company Wagner were behind the brazen attack. Until impacted European nations can figure out how to collaboratively detect and combat such unconventional tactics, all critical infrastructure should be considered to be very vulnerable.
About the Author: Maya Carlin
Maya Carlin, National Security Writer with The National Interest, is an analyst with the Center for Security Policy and a former Anna Sobol Levy Fellow at IDC Herzliya in Israel. She has bylines in many publications, including The National Interest, The Jerusalem Post, and The Times of Israel. You can follow her on Twitter: @MayaCarlin.
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